Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Wagner vs. St. Francis (PA)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaf70a0d9574208145ab5dd6af4d18807877043aea4f3ef05a8c2ae94a5b52099
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- St. Francis (PA)of Wagner, St. Francis (PA)
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,484
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,519
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,484 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked St. Francis (PA) | 59c | 396$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.45 | 1,391 | 44.1%613 W · 778 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e7…4d1abacked St. Francis (PA) | 60c | 65$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa04d…482bbacked Wagner | 40c | 62$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38b6…2b9fbacked Wagner | 27c | 59$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.93 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 38cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5581…f322backed Wagner | 39c | 56$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd935…bc4bbacked Wagner | 37c | 51$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9354…68a3backed Wagner | 27c | 51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8884…2357backed Wagner | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -39%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35c7…e50cbacked Wagner | 39c | 38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -51%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ddd…0159backed Wagner | 38c | 36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ec…02d2backed Wagner | 37c | 36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c8…e925backed St. Francis (PA) | 60c | 36$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf4f…20eebacked Wagner | 39c | 33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42d9…324fbacked Wagner | 39c | 32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd240…2767backed St. Francis (PA) | 60c | 32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1843…34d7backed St. Francis (PA) | 73c | 32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeac7…fec6backed St. Francis (PA) | 57c | 31$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…546cbacked St. Francis (PA) | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4cf…ff28backed St. Francis (PA) | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +34%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b57…d63bbacked St. Francis (PA) | 62c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.12 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 69cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44f4…09f4backed St. Francis (PA) | 61c | 22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +60.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x046e…6da7backed St. Francis (PA) | 62c | 22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d59…79d4backed St. Francis (PA) | 61c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb777…c686backed St. Francis (PA) | 73c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e3…a604backed St. Francis (PA) | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0df6…c309backed St. Francis (PA) | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +84.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b10…6bb5backed St. Francis (PA) | 73c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc51f…dabcbacked St. Francis (PA) | 73c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.86 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.