Valorant · resolved market
Valorant: Blue Otter vs ROSE (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 1 Relegation Group Stage
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaffa9acba8bee94acaff8b2c8b7e1c4e0caceda5acc5d72f4e2f184debd235bf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Blue Otterof Blue Otter, ROSE
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,767
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,767 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 11 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Valorant | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc8f9…fee2backed Blue Otter | 43c | 776.48$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.97 | 282 | 47.5%134 W · 148 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fbf…4605backed ROSE | 57c | 400$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -6.6wins | -0.22per pick | 49cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd5…ef85backed ROSE | 57c | 157.88$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.99 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2aad…88d4backed ROSE | 57c | 132$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.24 | 59 | 39%23 W · 36 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed ROSE | 62c | 100.34$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.21 | 275 | 46.2%127 W · 148 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…6a15backed Blue Otter | 38c | 85.06$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.74 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9810…b0debacked Blue Otter | 38c | 56.73$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.17 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked ROSE | 57c | 55$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.35 | 174 | 63.8%111 W · 63 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c43…fb9bbacked ROSE | 64c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5747…7fdfbacked ROSE | 63c | 23.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 628 | 56.4%354 W · 274 L | -10.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbda…8bd5backed ROSE | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 105 | 50.5%53 W · 52 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.