Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on May 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb044a9e0b5a6c4b7664c41f88266a345d14bb464dc8f0ccf92fb004f9b1b8a04
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,648
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,527
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,648 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 6c | 274.28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.13 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 41c | 267.79$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.25 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6011…b31ebacked No | 59c | 166.73$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.73 | 162 | 95.7%155 W · 7 L | +61.2wins | +0.38per pick | 58cpaid | +97.3%equal weight | 86+0.33 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 36c | 165.81$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.17 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd0…b52fbacked Yes | 28c | 161.06$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.61 | 229 | 32.3%74 W · 155 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac24…576ebacked Yes | 61c | 159.91$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.96 | 233 | 34.3%80 W · 153 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 62c | 130.66$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.78 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ffa…d06bbacked Yes | 43c | 102.35$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.88 | 244 | 42.6%104 W · 140 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 53c | 99.84$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.83 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85db…1423backed No | 41c | 99$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.14 | 66 | 66.7%44 W · 22 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 60c | 92.35$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.64 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9410…9160backed No | 50c | 83.83$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.85 | 420 | 49%206 W · 214 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 31c | 75.15$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.11 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 50c | 70.6$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.49 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed No | 51c | 66.46$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.42 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 37c | 62$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.32 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 61c | 61.56$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.79 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ed0…25afbacked Yes | 53c | 56.07$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.76 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0832…8681backed Yes | 57c | 56$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.92 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 34c | 55.93$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked Yes | 67c | 53.22$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.59 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed Yes | 36c | 53.13$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 55c | 52.08$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.19 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9151…a93ebacked No | 63c | 50.72$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.77 | 111 | 64%71 W · 40 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +70.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed No | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.93 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 35c | 45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f73…a5f2backed Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 158 | 43%68 W · 90 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb281…e048backed Yes | 63c | 35.43$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.46 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 56c | 34.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.39 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 40c | 34$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.55 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 61c | 32.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2921…1706backed Yes | 44c | 32.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4766…6e4bbacked Yes | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce05…ff90backed No | 72c | 30.32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.53 | 240 | 53.3%128 W · 112 L | -9.5wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3b…256ebacked Yes | 59c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 233 | 62.2%145 W · 88 L | +33.5wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked No | 62c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 62c | 23.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2aec…6e19backed No | 70c | 23.19$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.91 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked No | 66c | 22.76$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7903…57f6backed No | 64c | 22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 277 | 69%191 W · 86 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f4…4a91backed No | 65c | 21.77$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec4…cb91backed No | 53c | 20.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 71 | 70.4%50 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ab…5cf7backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 208 | 52.4%109 W · 99 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2298…9f33backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 351 | 68.4%240 W · 111 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 61c | 19.84$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.74 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 68c | 18.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 69c | 15.26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.68 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on May 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on May 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on May 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.