Olympics · resolved market
Will Summer McIntosh (CAN) win Gold in Women's 200m Individual Medley?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb04de12354c31dec49591dda05e5fb3b2b26cff3363a2e051b173e2096ebe743
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Olympicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,935
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,134
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,935 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Olympics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Olympics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x241e…c7bfbacked No | 2c | 8,000$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5230…58f5backed No | 2c | 6,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff30…4a37backed Yes | 45c | 540.47$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +124.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed No | 58c | 389$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.62 | 134 | 19.4%26 W · 108 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3613…79e1backed Yes | 42c | 300$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174 | 38 | 18.4%7 W · 31 L | -6.1wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbc26…24d0backed Yes | 40c | 225$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b55…02f8backed No | 35c | 150.98$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.23 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf339…e010backed Yes | 40c | 80$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x124c…847dbacked Yes | 55c | 72.46$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ccf…7afbbacked Yes | 57c | 52.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.69 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cb…b857backed No | 41c | 32.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 40 | 67.5%27 W · 13 L | +7.5wins | +0.19per pick | 49cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe185…2c81backed Yes | 65c | 23.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38d7…261bbacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Olympics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Summer McIntosh (CAN) win Gold in Women's 200m Individual Medley?this page
- Will Alex Walsh (USA) win Gold in Women's 200m Individual Medley?No won
- Will Kate Douglass (USA) win Gold in Women's 200m Individual Medley?No won
- Will Kaylee McKeown (AUS) win Gold in Women's 200m Individual Medley?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.