MLB · resolved market
Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb07297144098b1ec3c5e496e00e3473d102fdfbd240b160cfdae29a5e95ad1ca
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- San Diego Padresof New York Mets, San Diego Padres
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,870
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,887
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,870 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 11 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa983…46a3backed San Diego Padres | 72c | 18,783$13,451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,331.68 | 113 | 45.1%51 W · 62 L | -16.4wins | -0.14per pick | 60cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed New York Mets | 25c | 4,622$1,151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,150.64 | 784 | 45.3%355 W · 429 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked New York Mets | 32c | 4,000$1,280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,280 | 1,328 | 51.4%682 W · 646 L | +25.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebc0…fa41backed New York Mets | 22c | 3,451$759 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$759.26 | 171 | 56.1%96 W · 75 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…f2a2backed New York Mets | 33c | 3,010$993 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$993.14 | 387 | 51.9%201 W · 186 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked New York Mets | 34c | 1,151$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.34 | 631 | 52.6%332 W · 299 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked New York Mets | 32c | 1,000$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 1,530 | 50.5%772 W · 758 L | +20.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed New York Mets | 29c | 942.38$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.12 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked New York Mets | 34c | 700.18$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.64 | 240 | 40.8%98 W · 142 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c50…d3fdbacked San Diego Padres | 68c | 132.35$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.35 | 39 | 69.2%27 W · 12 L | +6.2wins | +0.16per pick | 53cpaid | +30%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed New York Mets | 32c | 63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 1,137 | 46.3%526 W · 611 L | +36.1wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)this page
- NRFI: San Diego Padres vs. New York MetsNo won
- Padres vs. MetsPadres won
- San Diego Padres vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.