Bundesliga · resolved market
Will Werder Bremen vs. RB Leipzig end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb112acca03f4f52123ac74bcf2dd43932b3b4c7608e4b9a0554e6daf284164bf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,229
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,261
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,229 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed No | 75c | 5,067$3,780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,780.04 | 237 | 45.6%108 W · 129 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae36…8fb5backed Yes | 25c | 5,009$1,258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,751.08 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +136.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb69a…4ba7backed No | 75c | 745$559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$558.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ffa…0ae6backed Yes | 25c | 280$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +300%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x649d…88afbacked No | 75c | 130$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b0…cdd9backed Yes | 25c | 120$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +228.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9597…62e9backed No | 75c | 115$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48ec…b68fbacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 52cpaid | +164.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca6f…fc19backed Yes | 25c | 95$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.68per pick | 33cpaid | +225%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x10f4…3b7ebacked Yes | 29c | 68.29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +241.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b3…526abacked Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +300%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6457…834fbacked Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +300%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked No | 65c | 43.45$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.45 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb18d…7d54backed No | 77c | 38.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.02 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x246c…4c1abacked Yes | 53c | 22.7$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.67 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Werder Bremen vs. RB Leipzig end in a draw?this page
- Will RB Leipzig beat Werder Bremen?No won
- Will Werder Bremen beat RB Leipzig?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.