Bundesliga · resolved market
Will Werder Bremen beat RB Leipzig?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x43573e41f44efe0306f341aa56ebbda8295aa1447d8757f2460d03440184195a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,814
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $49,478
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,814 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed No | 53c | 10,087$5,342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,745.02 | 157 | 42%66 W · 91 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Yes | 46c | 9,733$4,526 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,525.57 | 237 | 45.6%108 W · 129 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Yes | 47c | 8,169$3,826 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,825.8 | 148 | 46.6%69 W · 79 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae36…8fb5backed No | 54c | 4,713$2,545 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,167.98 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +136.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Yes | 46c | 2,852$1,308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,308.45 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 46c | 1,227$562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$561.68 | 193 | 47.2%91 W · 102 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ac…957dbacked Yes | 46c | 1,000$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455.36 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed No | 57c | 1,000$570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430.15 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x649d…88afbacked Yes | 41c | 845$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked Yes | 39c | 542.47$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.34 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x07dd…ed9dbacked Yes | 32c | 471.43$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +3.0wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +37%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb69a…4ba7backed No | 59c | 450$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked Yes | 45c | 387.76$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.49 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed Yes | 49c | 229.67$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.52 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5902…59fabacked No | 57c | 200$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +73.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…099abacked Yes | 40c | 200$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x604f…9c80backed No | 59c | 165$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5df…15edbacked No | 59c | 155$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 60cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…13ffbacked No | 53c | 150$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.5 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e42…9003backed No | 57c | 140$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.77 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa28e…2a06backed Yes | 41c | 120$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45a9…628fbacked No | 59c | 85$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf6…8e9abacked Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0e…47c8backed No | 59c | 55$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +113%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf27…3cebbacked Yes | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94bb…8cd5backed No | 59c | 43.44$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.81 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +74.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2165…f598backed No | 52c | 43.18$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.69 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8050…49ffbacked No | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8532…d203backed No | 59c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Werder Bremen beat RB Leipzig?this page
- Will RB Leipzig beat Werder Bremen?No won
- Will Werder Bremen vs. RB Leipzig end in a draw?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.