TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will "Emily in Paris: Season 5" be the top global Netflix show this week? (December 30, 2025)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$28,629
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$20,732

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,629 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 10 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xdd55…c9bfbacked Yes1c5,894$61 inLost-$60.741414.3%2 W · 12 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick19cpaid-77.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf82e…5b63backed Yes3c2,915$82 inLost-$82.25425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-67.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x011b…e44dbacked Yes2c2,891$65 inLost-$65.046731.3%21 W · 46 L-4.0wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-50.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa81e…03dcbacked Yes2c2,137$36 inLost-$36.35540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-44.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x95bd…0839backed Yes10c1,630$161 inLost-$16120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x12d3…53c1backed Yes1c1,500$17 inLost-$16.52138.1%8 W · 13 L+3.0wins+0.14per pick24cpaid-29.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xde5e…3a94backed Yes2c1,185$25 inLost-$25.283847.4%18 W · 20 L+4.3wins+0.11per pick36cpaid+7.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6489…71ebbacked Yes2c1,169$25 inLost-$25.05616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-77.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a43…9e08backed Yes12c195.19$24 inLost-$24250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.38per pick12cpaid+299.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa05c…aa9bbacked Yes10c100$10 inLost-$10837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.14per pick23cpaid+81.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.