Tennis · resolved market
Shnaider vs. Fernandez: Total Sets O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb169b983a3d88c42e909c928a449534d93eb6eaf1d3d6e460367f3efe3b70f9a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Under 2.5of Over 2.5, Under 2.5
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,705
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,741
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,705 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1393…8392backed Under 2.5 | 62c | 235$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.3 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -18%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa024…4929backed Under 2.5 | 61c | 164$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.96 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over 2.5 | 13c | 149.89$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.13 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…5ab9backed Under 2.5 | 61c | 98$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.22 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +3.9wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d89…87b0backed Over 2.5 | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d2d…ffcebacked Over 2.5 | 39c | 44$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38a6…bbd5backed Over 2.5 | 38c | 44$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.72 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…9b15backed Over 2.5 | 38c | 43$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50ad…2c48backed Over 2.5 | 38c | 43$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f57…6d41backed Over 2.5 | 38c | 36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -28%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedc2…e450backed Over 2.5 | 38c | 36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e9…6613backed Over 2.5 | 38c | 33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41ae…bdfcbacked Over 2.5 | 39c | 33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x063c…d642backed Over 2.5 | 39c | 31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2614…1000backed Over 2.5 | 39c | 31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.23per pick | 57cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a80…cbf7backed Over 2.5 | 39c | 26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Shnaider vs. Fernandez: Total Sets O/U 2.5this page
- Adelaide International: Diana Shnaider vs Leylah FernandezShnaider won
- Set 1 Winner: Shnaider vs FernandezShnaider won
- Set Handicap: Shnaider (-1.5) vs Fernandez (+1.5)Shnaider won
- Shnaider vs. Fernandez: Match O/U 21.5Under won
- Shnaider vs. Fernandez: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.