Tennis · resolved market
Adelaide International: Diana Shnaider vs Leylah Fernandez
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1c89c4df78ffceeb200b780227bef44cc469090908059dd6f7be8a36b3d8e330
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Shnaiderof Shnaider, Fernandez
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $48,167
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,948
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,167 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc9c8…44fbbacked Fernandez | 6c | 17,845$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,020.45 | 98 | 26.5%26 W · 72 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -33%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Fernandez | 46c | 5,427$2,494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,494.22 | 198 | 35.4%70 W · 128 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa9…c100backed Shnaider | 54c | 5,000$2,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,300 | 430 | 51.2%220 W · 210 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Shnaider | 54c | 4,063$2,210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,853.35 | 97 | 42.3%41 W · 56 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Fernandez | 46c | 2,500$1,150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,150 | 192 | 41.1%79 W · 113 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7daf…0ec8backed Shnaider | 55c | 1,401$768 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$632.98 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Fernandez | 45c | 1,132$509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509.4 | 551 | 43.4%239 W · 312 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Fernandez | 3c | 1,055$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.1 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Fernandez | 45c | 1,011$452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$451.91 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x033e…1bb9backed Fernandez | 46c | 930$431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430.73 | 308 | 45.5%140 W · 168 L | -10.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeed0…dd5ebacked Fernandez | 45c | 882.65$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.77 | 109 | 43.1%47 W · 62 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Shnaider | 58c | 864.22$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.78 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeebf…3885backed Fernandez | 11c | 783.27$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.24 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1388…339abacked Fernandez | 46c | 500$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 227 | 37.4%85 W · 142 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Shnaider | 69c | 422.63$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.07 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Fernandez | 45c | 377.78$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 434 | 48.4%210 W · 224 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Fernandez | 4c | 300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 459 | 9.6%44 W · 415 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Fernandez | 45c | 257.31$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.81 | 2,068 | 34.9%721 W · 1,347 L | -44.2wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Shnaider | 56c | 235.77$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.84 | 281 | 39.1%110 W · 171 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6be…b977backed Fernandez | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,768 | 43.2%764 W · 1,004 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36f7…d106backed Fernandez | 42c | 200$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 122 | 27%33 W · 89 L | +5.6wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66b1…340fbacked Shnaider | 54c | 200$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 1,161 | 44.3%514 W · 647 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15fe…c871backed Fernandez | 16c | 197.82$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.53 | 161 | 33.5%54 W · 107 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85c2…9730backed Shnaider | 54c | 186.89$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.32 | 518 | 49.4%256 W · 262 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0097…f101backed Shnaider | 60c | 175.64$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.87 | 218 | 43.1%94 W · 124 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81a4…da1fbacked Shnaider | 58c | 172.5$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.5 | 138 | 50.7%70 W · 68 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…b906backed Fernandez | 45c | 163.05$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.93 | 1,026 | 46.8%480 W · 546 L | +14.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Fernandez | 44c | 162.22$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.57 | 276 | 27.2%75 W · 201 L | -25.2wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5404…5e58backed Fernandez | 44c | 160$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.3 | 694 | 29.8%207 W · 487 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Shnaider | 55c | 156.95$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.09 | 222 | 36.9%82 W · 140 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8df0…96a6backed Shnaider | 63c | 113.41$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.29 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | -6.0wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -25%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb906…2a75backed Fernandez | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 407 | 44%179 W · 228 L | -14.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0257…22b2backed Shnaider | 60c | 110$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 593 | 48.9%290 W · 303 L | +8.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02c5…8356backed Shnaider | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32d6…844bbacked Shnaider | 55c | 83$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.35 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb06…4ababacked Shnaider | 55c | 72.73$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.73 | 287 | 54%155 W · 132 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad4…fdc3backed Shnaider | 54c | 63.86$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.16 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 20cpaid | -84.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Fernandez | 45c | 56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 602 | 40.5%244 W · 358 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd752…85d4backed Shnaider | 55c | 55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 268 | 33.6%90 W · 178 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7216…0d67backed Fernandez | 44c | 34.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.43 | 252 | 37.3%94 W · 158 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3457…0161backed Shnaider | 57c | 32.44$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 51 | 62.7%32 W · 19 L | +5.2wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Fernandez | 46c | 32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 7,183 | 49.7%3,568 W · 3,615 L | +112.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x669e…035bbacked Shnaider | 72c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 101 | 86.1%87 W · 14 L | +14.1wins | +0.14per pick | 72cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd411…e342backed Fernandez | 45c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83b1…cac1backed Fernandez | 45c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Adelaide International: Diana Shnaider vs Leylah Fernandezthis page
- Set 1 Winner: Shnaider vs FernandezShnaider won
- Set Handicap: Shnaider (-1.5) vs Fernandez (+1.5)Shnaider won
- Shnaider vs. Fernandez: Match O/U 21.5Under won
- Shnaider vs. Fernandez: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Over won
- Shnaider vs. Fernandez: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.