NHL · resolved market
AHL: Hartford Wolf Pack vs. Hershey Bears
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb176457e120a09d5d8ed6d027759eeb622cf3eef34ffbfd3ec5783447604289c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Hartford Wolf Packof Hartford Wolf Pack, Hershey Bears
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,591
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,504
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,591 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 11 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Hershey Bears | 53c | 886$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469.58 | 530 | 50.6%268 W · 262 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a8…1b66backed Hartford Wolf Pack | 45c | 843$379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$463.65 | 122 | 50%61 W · 61 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Hartford Wolf Pack | 47c | 831.49$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$441.57 | 1,636 | 50.4%825 W · 811 L | -20.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e9…8058backed Hartford Wolf Pack | 45c | 208$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac9f…3a4bbacked Hershey Bears | 55c | 206$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1403…712bbacked Hershey Bears | 55c | 199$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdeec…4a9dbacked Hartford Wolf Pack | 45c | 197$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9de1…f272backed Hartford Wolf Pack | 47c | 80$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.4 | 278 | 51.1%142 W · 136 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f1c…0dd0backed Hershey Bears | 53c | 73$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.69 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Hartford Wolf Pack | 42c | 47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.26 | 162 | 35.2%57 W · 105 L | -9.3wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Hershey Bears | 53c | 47$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.91 | 831 | 49.5%411 W · 420 L | -9.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.