Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 67°F or below on March 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb1a728076d1ada238ca1bf742b80e6723ff71d3bcc0a46776362cf7c316f80b5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,258
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,827
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,258 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 24c | 508.2$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385.73 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 4c | 422.11$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405.2 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 45c | 361.06$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.34 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae07…8059backed Yes | 15c | 302.05$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.46 | 435 | 25.3%110 W · 325 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…4221backed No | 69c | 220.36$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.46 | 144 | 42.4%61 W · 83 L | -11.7wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 7c | 203.65$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.41 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed No | 40c | 187.97$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.76 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 71c | 155.51$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.98 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e83…5d73backed Yes | 54c | 150.7$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.7 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…faeabacked Yes | 8c | 133.42$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.41 | 311 | 70.7%220 W · 91 L | +42.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea0…b107backed Yes | 11c | 110.31$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.31 | 80 | 20%16 W · 64 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 43c | 81.08$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.87 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 22c | 76.28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.03 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x129c…0085backed Yes | 74c | 62.35$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.35 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed No | 26c | 43.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 328 | 18.3%60 W · 268 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 36c | 34.74$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.36 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 67c | 34.69$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.34 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 58c | 28.44$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.92 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2e…c9e1backed No | 52c | 27.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 204 | 31.9%65 W · 139 L | -14.5wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 67°F or below on March 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 86°F or higher on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 80-81°F on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 82-83°F on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 84-85°F on March 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.