NFL · resolved market
Spread: MIN (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb1b9bd1cef641df3e2c06452c811b1893dbaf6716540139150f92c6a936089a4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- BALof MIN, BAL
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,857
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,657
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,857 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7d92…8676backed BAL | 56c | 1,475$826 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$649.13 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb18c…694fbacked MIN | 44c | 1,127$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495.77 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked BAL | 54c | 952$516 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$435.99 | 173 | 50.9%88 W · 85 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed MIN | 49c | 832$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.18 | 394 | 47.7%188 W · 206 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked MIN | 33c | 453.49$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.61 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed MIN | 46c | 380.66$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.75 | 148 | 50%74 W · 74 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked MIN | 43c | 256$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.08 | 92 | 40.2%37 W · 55 L | -6.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked BAL | 65c | 209.49$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.04 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed MIN | 47c | 107$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.29 | 223 | 49.8%111 W · 112 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked BAL | 55c | 94$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.23 | 121 | 51.2%62 W · 59 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb3…4a24backed BAL | 53c | 51.2$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.06 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +4.1wins | +0.15per pick | 53cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbf65…3020backed BAL | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +112.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x83dd…10c6backed BAL | 56c | 44.94$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.94 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +90.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0460…7137backed MIN | 49c | 42.86$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked BAL | 66c | 31$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.41 | 315 | 43.2%136 W · 179 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e0f…2deebacked BAL | 57c | 25.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.01 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 54cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed MIN | 50c | 22.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 134 | 49.3%66 W · 68 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5317…9a3bbacked BAL | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: MIN (-3.5)this page
- BAL vs. MIN: O/U 36.5Under won
- BAL vs. MIN: O/U 37.5Under won
- Ravens vs. VikingsRavens won
- Spread: MIN (-2.5)BAL won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.