NFL · resolved market
Spread: MIN (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5d52116ab2b82d834025af68649e73a3d03a70d8119d5db151912616297821ac
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- BALof MIN, BAL
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,054
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,511
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,054 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked BAL | 47c | 4,343$2,061 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,281.94 | 173 | 50.9%88 W · 85 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa080…234fbacked MIN | 52c | 3,251$1,691 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,690.6 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -3.0wins | -0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed BAL | 44c | 1,754$772 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$982.16 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73e8…cd6fbacked MIN | 56c | 1,592$891 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$891.48 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed MIN | 55c | 1,300$711 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$711 | 236 | 47%111 W · 125 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2734…6d9ebacked MIN | 54c | 811.02$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440 | 56 | 58.9%33 W · 23 L | +5.1wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed MIN | 52c | 632$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.32 | 91 | 45.1%41 W · 50 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked MIN | 41c | 455$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.76 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed BAL | 53c | 372$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.24 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed BAL | 48c | 327$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.04 | 59 | 49.2%29 W · 30 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed BAL | 45c | 282.02$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.11 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | -4.8wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5317…9a3bbacked BAL | 46c | 261.47$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.62 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked BAL | 48c | 218$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.26 | 121 | 51.2%62 W · 59 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed BAL | 56c | 150$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 232 | 44.4%103 W · 129 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed MIN | 39c | 117.66$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.4 | 118 | 46.6%55 W · 63 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked BAL | 46c | 106$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.78 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked BAL | 60c | 100.84$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.84 | 104 | 52.9%55 W · 49 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked MIN | 52c | 96.4$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.13 | 92 | 40.2%37 W · 55 L | -6.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked BAL | 53c | 57.81$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.31 | 119 | 58%69 W · 50 L | +7.8wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked BAL | 46c | 48.52$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.42 | 104 | 55.8%58 W · 46 L | +6.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88fb…db3abacked BAL | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +3.5wins | +0.32per pick | 50cpaid | +66.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked BAL | 58c | 37$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.56 | 315 | 43.2%136 W · 179 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0460…7137backed MIN | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd774…82cdbacked BAL | 48c | 21.4$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.13 | 133 | 39.8%53 W · 80 L | -10.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked BAL | 60c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 81 | 46.9%38 W · 43 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: MIN (-2.5)this page
- BAL vs. MIN: O/U 36.5Under won
- BAL vs. MIN: O/U 37.5Under won
- Ravens vs. VikingsRavens won
- Spread: MIN (-3.5)BAL won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.