Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on March 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb1bcb4e568cc52c4ee4835efe5137049aebff9e6ea24f2277d1e00448f824abb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,258
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,920
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,258 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1bfc…98e0backed Yes | 0c | 11,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 34 | 8.8%3 W · 31 L | -4.2wins | -0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -76.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb31e…0f11backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x468a…ae90backed Yes | 0c | 5,038$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 15cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 77c | 330.37$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.6 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 299.92$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.99 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed Yes | 16c | 199.91$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.99 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 15c | 193.29$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.46 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d98…a232backed Yes | 31c | 191.67$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 9c | 148.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…7926backed Yes | 11c | 147.62$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 423 | 15.4%65 W · 358 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 19c | 123.3$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.72 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 12c | 117.83$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 74c | 113.31$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.73 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…62dfbacked Yes | 14c | 104.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 251 | 19.9%50 W · 201 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc72…ad49backed No | 72c | 89.02$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.91 | 115 | 65.2%75 W · 40 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12cc…275dbacked No | 71c | 84.89$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.59 | 54 | 63%34 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8f…cf0fbacked Yes | 14c | 84.87$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 86 | 40.7%35 W · 51 L | -9.2wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5e40…f89cbacked Yes | 34c | 75.97$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.03 | 245 | 69.8%171 W · 74 L | +30.9wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xcc4e…9487backed Yes | 39c | 73.91$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e36…5374backed Yes | 18c | 73.57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x951a…872dbacked Yes | 14c | 73.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65a3…b6bcbacked Yes | 26c | 70.11$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.23 | 43 | 11.6%5 W · 38 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd5…5551backed Yes | 16c | 69.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 25 | 76%19 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b22…8945backed No | 75c | 58.02$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.53 | 253 | 41.5%105 W · 148 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed Yes | 26c | 57.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b66…3907backed Yes | 25c | 56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 22c | 55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87c7…d1b6backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf36…ffb0backed Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 159 | 39%62 W · 97 L | +14.4wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +28%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 65c | 39.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3319…977abacked Yes | 30c | 37.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 264 | 26.9%71 W · 193 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 74c | 33.78$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 74c | 27.29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 67c | 24.8$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.14 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 70c | 14.62$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.34 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on March 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on March 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on March 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on March 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on March 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on March 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.