Lol · resolved market
Game Handicap: C9 (-1.5) vs FURIA Esports (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb1c4c882b1151218e25f0355aac529a6670cafa9a12fba4ec94587f2caf3b7e3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- FURIA Esportsof Cloud9, FURIA Esports
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,943
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,943 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8e8c…65ddbacked FURIA Esports | 62c | 1,500$930 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$570 | 704 | 56.4%397 W · 307 L | +39.3wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7234…1d85backed Cloud9 | 38c | 1,500$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570 | 146 | 37.7%55 W · 91 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b12…43c8backed Cloud9 | 41c | 1,287$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$529.78 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | -7.6wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked FURIA Esports | 58c | 940.21$546 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394.69 | 2,406 | 42.6%1,026 W · 1,380 L | +21.5wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x437c…f458backed Cloud9 | 42c | 909$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.78 | 262 | 46.6%122 W · 140 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe8c…9e9ebacked Cloud9 | 39c | 695.6$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.28 | 178 | 39.3%70 W · 108 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe902…eda4backed FURIA Esports | 61c | 501.64$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.64 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a6b…7f63backed FURIA Esports | 60c | 201.95$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.78 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 66cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe766…404dbacked FURIA Esports | 59c | 200$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked FURIA Esports | 59c | 195.19$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 1,224 | 48.3%591 W · 633 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc30…c8a5backed Cloud9 | 42c | 169.05$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.74 | 808 | 32.9%266 W · 542 L | -43.9wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcdad…9eaebacked FURIA Esports | 60c | 150$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 123 | 33.3%41 W · 82 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -18%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c43…fb9bbacked FURIA Esports | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +5.4wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed FURIA Esports | 59c | 97.6$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.02 | 329 | 41%135 W · 194 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56b4…c4adbacked FURIA Esports | 61c | 80$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 124 | 54%67 W · 57 L | +8.1wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed FURIA Esports | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 233 | 48.1%112 W · 121 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6752…25c2backed FURIA Esports | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: C9 (-1.5) vs FURIA Esports (+1.5)this page
- Game Handicap: C9 (-2.5) vs FURIA Esports (+2.5)FURIA Esports won
- Game Handicap: FUR (-1.5) vs Cloud9 (+1.5)FURIA Esports won
- Games Total: O/U 3.5Under won
- LoL: FURIA Esports vs Cloud9 (BO5) - Americas Cup PlayoffsFURIA Esports won
- LoL: FURIA Esports vs Cloud9 - Game 1 WinnerFURIA Esports won
- LoL: FURIA Esports vs Cloud9 - Game 2 WinnerFURIA Esports won
- LoL: FURIA Esports vs Cloud9 - Game 3 WinnerFURIA Esports won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.