Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb23d6ac667ec7ae0b4b24ff471393ce3f00b0fe63473f266fe3e18ec840b0dbe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,649
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,210
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,649 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 23c | 241.64$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.17 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23d8…f6b9backed No | 77c | 199.99$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 251 | 75.7%190 W · 61 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +14%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x07d6…64fbbacked No | 69c | 190.1$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.74 | 210 | 68.6%144 W · 66 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 26c | 111.95$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 36c | 101.57$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.05 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b82…b217backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 141 | 34.8%49 W · 92 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82e7…f552backed No | 76c | 92.72$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.91 | 354 | 41%145 W · 209 L | -19.3wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 27c | 89.59$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.85 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab36…38dabacked Yes | 20c | 82.15$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.43 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2733…5ae8backed Yes | 24c | 81.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 57 | 33.3%19 W · 38 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 21c | 77.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.43 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 79c | 75.1$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.58 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b9…3afcbacked Yes | 24c | 70.34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.83 | 204 | 38.7%79 W · 125 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x198e…ede0backed Yes | 20c | 70$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 564 | 34.6%195 W · 369 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 70$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 75c | 67.46$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.77 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 16c | 62.22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x901e…7389backed No | 77c | 61$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.87 | 86 | 70.9%61 W · 25 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 75cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed Yes | 32c | 55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 25c | 50.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf0c…c7f6backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 104 | 43.3%45 W · 59 L | +8.9wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 65c | 48.92$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.05 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 25c | 45.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 70c | 41.18$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.35 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecd…9b27backed No | 73c | 34.24$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73ee…eea9backed No | 75c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 57 | 63.2%36 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b6…3b38backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 471 | 75.6%356 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd425…603ebacked No | 74c | 21.08$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.48 | 92 | 72.8%67 W · 25 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 74cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c70…edf3backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 125 | 39.2%49 W · 76 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff4e…c843backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 21 | 90.5%19 W · 2 L | +3.6wins | +0.17per pick | 73cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 76c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.29 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4aac…bc3bbacked No | 77c | 16.92$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.93 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x516e…6e0ebacked No | 78c | 14.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.12 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on June 7?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.