Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: summer bear vs Team Syntax - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb26143dd8147ae9e28079722641cfb7a3cf498f5f1def15187f7ab1130a05344
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- summer bearof summer bear, Team Syntax
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,053
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,252
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,053 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe2d0…7bbfbacked Team Syntax | 38c | 4,000$1,512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,512.06 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47de…b677backed Team Syntax | 1c | 2,500$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -31%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6b8…149bbacked summer bear | 66c | 2,458$1,631 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$827.21 | 102 | 45.1%46 W · 56 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9417…8440backed summer bear | 62c | 1,668$1,034 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$633.99 | 94 | 55.3%52 W · 42 L | +11.1wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +41%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x31a4…7afcbacked Team Syntax | 31c | 1,625$511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$511.47 | 953 | 42.2%402 W · 551 L | -20.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6876…8dc9backed summer bear | 68c | 890.85$605 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.25 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 71cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc83…08f4backed summer bear | 63c | 793.64$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.65 | 54 | 61.1%33 W · 21 L | +6.8wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6155…808ebacked Team Syntax | 32c | 786.27$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.61 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d59…8b19backed Team Syntax | 32c | 650.37$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.37 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1747…4afcbacked Team Syntax | 33c | 617.55$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.28 | 143 | 43.4%62 W · 81 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec96…f5d7backed Team Syntax | 35c | 579.38$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 372 | 53%197 W · 175 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5008…9466backed Team Syntax | 15c | 423.31$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.31 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -4.4wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8430…3961backed summer bear | 66c | 303.03$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.03 | 303 | 56.4%171 W · 132 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaec3…babcbacked summer bear | 69c | 291.88$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.88 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca93…3c97backed summer bear | 64c | 222.88$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.88 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa844…7d5fbacked Team Syntax | 22c | 199.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x142f…19f9backed Team Syntax | 15c | 190$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 234 | 42.7%100 W · 134 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf201…f884backed Team Syntax | 13c | 172.31$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 89 | 60.7%54 W · 35 L | +8.2wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f1…aa6dbacked Team Syntax | 34c | 145.69$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -3.5wins | -0.29per pick | 46cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xabd9…dc3abacked Team Syntax | 33c | 112.64$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.97 | 187 | 33.2%62 W · 125 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…0f71backed Team Syntax | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 66 | 62.1%41 W · 25 L | +8.7wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x48f7…3aebbacked summer bear | 55c | 95.5$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.97 | 668 | 48.5%324 W · 344 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3123…b44dbacked summer bear | 78c | 90$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.4 | 125 | 68%85 W · 40 L | +12.7wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec6…db1ebacked summer bear | 55c | 87.27$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.27 | 105 | 57.1%60 W · 45 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x422d…7e39backed summer bear | 67c | 69.75$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.32 | 124 | 52.4%65 W · 59 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb66e…ffc2backed summer bear | 69c | 64.9$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.12 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +4.8wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9b38…697fbacked summer bear | 73c | 55.07$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.07 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb87…4611backed summer bear | 67c | 37.31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.31 | 67 | 59.7%40 W · 27 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked summer bear | 72c | 27.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: summer bear vs Team Syntax - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: summer bear vs Team Syntax (BO3) - EPL Masters Play-In Group Bsummer bear won
- Dota 2: summer bear vs Team Syntax - Game 2 Winnersummer bear won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.