Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: summer bear vs Team Syntax - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xffdbed151e70e90db6757a527ac98d99df6f02185efe776c23155d336db0bf01
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- summer bearof summer bear, Team Syntax
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,397
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,536
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,397 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2146…d41bbacked Team Syntax | 12c | 2,830$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.08 | 897 | 41.5%372 W · 525 L | +22.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x070f…ed83backed Team Syntax | 11c | 2,000$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.12 | 262 | 47.7%125 W · 137 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6eac…ed37backed Team Syntax | 17c | 1,200$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204 | 574 | 49%281 W · 293 L | +33.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb2fd…eecfbacked Team Syntax | 13c | 947.11$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.43 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f8e…0c69backed Team Syntax | 25c | 900$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.9 | 73 | 49.3%36 W · 37 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x736d…c635backed Team Syntax | 17c | 742.15$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.35 | 971 | 42.7%415 W · 556 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a95…343bbacked Team Syntax | 10c | 688.09$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.81 | 698 | 35.2%246 W · 452 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f4…c1e4backed Team Syntax | 13c | 637.12$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.86 | 426 | 39.4%168 W · 258 L | -39.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5e6c…0c16backed Team Syntax | 10c | 499.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 191 | 35.6%68 W · 123 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d59…8b19backed Team Syntax | 17c | 435.66$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.04 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae27…6fb2backed Team Syntax | 15c | 421$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.2 | 56 | 21.4%12 W · 44 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5266…22acbacked Team Syntax | 12c | 369.66$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.36 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +4.1wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe092…e1c7backed Team Syntax | 30c | 290.01$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xabd9…dc3abacked Team Syntax | 11c | 271.03$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 187 | 33.2%62 W · 125 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x597d…b97dbacked Team Syntax | 25c | 250$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.48 | 207 | 38.6%80 W · 127 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3123…b44dbacked summer bear | 75c | 190$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.2 | 125 | 68%85 W · 40 L | +12.7wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Team Syntax | 13c | 156.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 915 | 53.3%488 W · 427 L | +48.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5011…94b4backed Team Syntax | 19c | 152.81$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.03 | 246 | 36.6%90 W · 156 L | -14.4wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x589a…8dc5backed Team Syntax | 17c | 125.29$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.05 | 204 | 42.2%86 W · 118 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50f9…4d40backed Team Syntax | 17c | 120.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…2ad3backed summer bear | 78c | 99.99$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 48 | 68.8%33 W · 15 L | +3.9wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9688…fd45backed Team Syntax | 19c | 98.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.41 | 241 | 38.6%93 W · 148 L | -18.0wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x034d…a29ebacked Team Syntax | 18c | 94.44$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52dd…005dbacked Team Syntax | 21c | 86.25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.28 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcba9…1a4ebacked Team Syntax | 22c | 83.59$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x575a…570ebacked summer bear | 56c | 66.82$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc269…7841backed summer bear | 78c | 60.03$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.03 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -5.9wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xda29…f4b8backed summer bear | 79c | 30.02$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.42 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67f6…1651backed summer bear | 79c | 21.38$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.42 | 77 | 42.9%33 W · 44 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -14%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: summer bear vs Team Syntax - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: summer bear vs Team Syntax (BO3) - EPL Masters Play-In Group Bsummer bear won
- Dota 2: summer bear vs Team Syntax - Game 1 Winnersummer bear won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.