Lol · resolved market
LoL: Forsaken vs devils.one - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb28abc6b16474382fa009d0fd7838631ad36ea4a705343cc4815c962af04cea7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Forsakenof Forsaken, devils.one
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,240
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,330
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,240 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7ec6…a2f1backed devils.one | 21c | 1,911$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.62 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d9f…787abacked Forsaken | 51c | 1,910$970 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$939.56 | 610 | 45.2%276 W · 334 L | +35.4wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked devils.one | 21c | 1,486$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.92 | 1,368 | 37.7%516 W · 852 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked devils.one | 47c | 1,283$603 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$602.96 | 2,406 | 42.6%1,026 W · 1,380 L | +21.5wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e32…ab65backed Forsaken | 78c | 1,000$780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220 | 2,156 | 53.2%1,148 W · 1,008 L | +57.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9348…8cfbbacked Forsaken | 80c | 974.58$779 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.24 | 163 | 52.1%85 W · 78 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x509d…0a6bbacked Forsaken | 79c | 727.34$577 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.78 | 670 | 56.9%381 W · 289 L | +17.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7787backed devils.one | 20c | 565.49$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.1 | 644 | 43%277 W · 367 L | -27.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17cd…7423backed devils.one | 19c | 555.54$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.28 | 427 | 35.4%151 W · 276 L | -17.6wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb3…76a9backed devils.one | 41c | 498.01$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.56 | 392 | 46.4%182 W · 210 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked devils.one | 22c | 476.6$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.85 | 2,341 | 40.3%943 W · 1,398 L | -61.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked devils.one | 50c | 375$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.5 | 820 | 44%361 W · 459 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Forsaken | 78c | 373.93$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.26 | 1,794 | 51.1%917 W · 877 L | +50.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked devils.one | 18c | 373.87$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.74 | 2,825 | 41.4%1,169 W · 1,656 L | -14.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed8f…5aa7backed devils.one | 22c | 362.55$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.76 | 188 | 29.8%56 W · 132 L | -11.1wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe450…a40abacked Forsaken | 79c | 356.11$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.59 | 122 | 63.1%77 W · 45 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f7…aebbbacked Forsaken | 67c | 336.42$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.76 | 258 | 50.4%130 W · 128 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ef…ca6bbacked devils.one | 50c | 243.83$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.59 | 1,671 | 57.9%968 W · 703 L | +70.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4c8…86b4backed Forsaken | 79c | 194.98$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.95 | 191 | 57.1%109 W · 82 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca0…38babacked Forsaken | 51c | 190.31$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.25 | 1,443 | 43.4%626 W · 817 L | +105.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…0864backed Forsaken | 77c | 149.88$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.78 | 744 | 62.2%463 W · 281 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc397…bb3bbacked devils.one | 66c | 147.74$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.98 | 1,663 | 59.5%990 W · 673 L | +98.5wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb4…6884backed Forsaken | 53c | 144.52$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.08 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | -5.0wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x31db…c25fbacked devils.one | 58c | 131.3$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.07 | 175 | 56.6%99 W · 76 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14fa…73f0backed Forsaken | 78c | 126.51$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.83 | 207 | 56%116 W · 91 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb57f…0c96backed devils.one | 19c | 125.18$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.79 | 438 | 39.7%174 W · 264 L | -24.3wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9b…cdeebacked devils.one | 27c | 122$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.49 | 331 | 24.2%80 W · 251 L | -33.2wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3a02…a770backed devils.one | 19c | 92.09$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 1,372 | 48.6%667 W · 705 L | +57.5wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed devils.one | 31c | 64.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,831 | 17.1%313 W · 1,518 L | -236.0wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -46%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c8…a184backed devils.one | 38c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 432 | 33.8%146 W · 286 L | -20.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3892…4093backed Forsaken | 79c | 48.75$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.24 | 299 | 48.8%146 W · 153 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2156…b735backed devils.one | 40c | 48.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.28 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Forsaken | 31c | 46.26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.71 | 2,679 | 35.7%957 W · 1,722 L | -153.5wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6617…29bdbacked devils.one | 39c | 45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 253 | 40.7%103 W · 150 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc63b…6e4ebacked devils.one | 43c | 35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 253 | 31.2%79 W · 174 L | -9.8wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86c8…fc02backed devils.one | 63c | 30.39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.02 | 505 | 49.3%249 W · 256 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc44f…af90backed Forsaken | 80c | 28.31$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.66 | 140 | 67.9%95 W · 45 L | +6.6wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x654f…61eebacked devils.one | 39c | 25.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa427…f87fbacked Forsaken | 79c | 19.75$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.15 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | -5.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b25…10aabacked Forsaken | 80c | 17.54$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.51 | 357 | 55.7%199 W · 158 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- LoL: Forsaken vs devils.one - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Game Handicap: FSK (-1.5) vs devils.one (+1.5)devils.one won
- LoL: Forsaken vs devils.one (BO3) - Rift Legends Regular SeasonForsaken won
- LoL: Forsaken vs devils.one - Game 2 Winnerdevils.one won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.