Mls · resolved market
Charlotte FC vs. New York Red Bulls: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb30288ec5d69957bed66d4fd3f648caa960078f01c8b14be7c7b9d134f85c300
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,457
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,457 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 43c | 681.39$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.87 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Under | 42c | 586.7$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.41 | 130 | 53.1%69 W · 61 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 55c | 567$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.15 | 164 | 53%87 W · 77 L | +20.7wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +40%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 58c | 343.37$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.87 | 251 | 49%123 W · 128 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8314…0f1ebacked Over | 56c | 250$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 54 | 64.8%35 W · 19 L | +7.6wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 34c | 220.45$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.06 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Under | 43c | 180$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.4 | 243 | 51.4%125 W · 118 L | -16.4wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6619…703ebacked Over | 58c | 151.72$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.72 | 105 | 62.9%66 W · 39 L | +9.3wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ae…4df8backed Under | 42c | 147.1$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.78 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc17…f3c4backed Over | 59c | 135.59$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.59 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 74c | 134.28$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.28 | 97 | 58.8%57 W · 40 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 42c | 131$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.46 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaad…c739backed Over | 58c | 120.69$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.69 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbdf…b8a0backed Over | 59c | 107.03$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.88 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca7…0c48backed Over | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +3.2wins | +0.25per pick | 52cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x736d…c635backed Under | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…8dbebacked Over | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +15%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 42c | 75.79$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.91 | 580 | 43.6%253 W · 327 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7113…dba4backed Over | 59c | 67.8$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.8 | 167 | 44.3%74 W · 93 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 44c | 65$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.3 | 685 | 50.5%346 W · 339 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 61c | 50.9$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.9 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd066…9eecbacked Over | 59c | 44.07$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.07 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafaf…572dbacked Over | 58c | 43.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb409…10b2backed Over | 68c | 32.81$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca2d…39edbacked Under | 42c | 30.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 128 | 49.2%63 W · 65 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x079f…a9d1backed Over | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Under | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa1…bf73backed Over | 59c | 28.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.99 | 102 | 49%50 W · 52 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 42c | 26.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Under | 43c | 25.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 122 | 54.1%66 W · 56 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa60b…c728backed Over | 57c | 19.22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.26 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Charlotte FC vs. New York Red Bulls: O/U 2.5this page
- Charlotte FC vs. New York Red Bulls: O/U 1.5Over won
- Charlotte FC vs. New York Red Bulls: O/U 3.5Over won
- Charlotte FC vs. New York Red Bulls: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: New York Red Bulls (-2.5)Charlotte FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.