MLB · resolved market
Phillies vs. Mets: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb31bd2002ec459257768878edc7f3984a178a259cec7fef7684c40ee2eff8b6b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,550
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,550
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,550 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa974…ef79backed Over | 66c | 1,900$1,254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$646 | 220 | 47.7%105 W · 115 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Under | 34c | 1,607$544 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$543.66 | 1,530 | 50.5%772 W · 758 L | +20.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked Under | 34c | 400$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136 | 240 | 40.8%98 W · 142 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60e6…9e8abacked Over | 65c | 299.97$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.99 | 326 | 51.5%168 W · 158 L | +14.5wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e94…6243backed Under | 33c | 226.03$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.59 | 543 | 45.5%247 W · 296 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x113b…70b5backed Under | 37c | 166.11$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.46 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37e3…fff7backed Under | 36c | 141.56$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.84 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe929…a768backed Over | 67c | 94.48$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.18 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dcb…3b30backed Over | 67c | 93.28$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.78 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe027…14a3backed Under | 35c | 70.09$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.53 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x653e…a47abacked Under | 35c | 69.94$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.48 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.36per pick | 52cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe913…74fbbacked Over | 67c | 62.82$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.73 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…65febacked Over | 67c | 51.34$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.94 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -4.4wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Over | 62c | 41.34$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 1,328 | 51.4%682 W · 646 L | +25.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x959f…31b9backed Under | 38c | 41.34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.71 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x91b3…9b71backed Over | 67c | 40.58$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.39 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f10…60a7backed Over | 67c | 40.09$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.23 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +76.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Under | 34c | 40.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 733 | 52.4%384 W · 349 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3459…2b8dbacked Over | 66c | 40.05$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.62 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e2a…e815backed Over | 66c | 39.95$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.58 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +34%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…182bbacked Over | 66c | 39.94$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.58 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9959…0d51backed Over | 66c | 39.86$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.55 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.34per pick | 59cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09e0…ba5bbacked Under | 38c | 39.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +57.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfafb…d523backed Under | 37c | 39.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4c1…6428backed Under | 35c | 39.31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef5…6db3backed Over | 67c | 38.69$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.77 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebba…4de7backed Over | 66c | 37.21$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.65 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…cb9ebacked Over | 67c | 37.19$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd50a…3018backed Under | 35c | 36.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5519…6ad1backed Over | 67c | 36.75$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.13 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.39per pick | 59cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1fb…2d11backed Under | 37c | 35.54$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 41cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 63c | 35.02$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.08 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325d…515cbacked Under | 38c | 34.92$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5eb…0ac2backed Over | 67c | 30.78$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.16 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Phillies vs. Mets: O/U 6.5this page
- Phillies vs. MetsMets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.