Tennis · resolved market
Shang vs. Bublik: Match O/U 23.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb33918f8bd89edec20109a3c6351442272b9b1ee87ae9f58b515830c6b1b1ad0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,537
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,062
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,537 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7e13…670bbacked Under | 57c | 526.32$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.32 | 51 | 64.7%33 W · 18 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 43c | 514.02$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.03 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1488…0672backed Under | 52c | 102$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.96 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bec…6997backed Under | 52c | 101$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.48 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28a2…91a4backed Under | 53c | 63$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.61 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70a1…978abacked Over | 49c | 61.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 884 | 46.8%414 W · 470 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a1…be8bbacked Over | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd512…91eebacked Over | 48c | 39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce96…ff5cbacked Over | 47c | 35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 59cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d84…6df0backed Under | 57c | 34.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26fc…2286backed Over | 48c | 32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a7c…1214backed Over | 48c | 31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1db3…ada1backed Under | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.6 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf47…4d00backed Over | 48c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc61d…ca38backed Over | 47c | 28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.26per pick | 43cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5d…e5bfbacked Over | 48c | 23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Shang vs. Bublik: Match O/U 23.5this page
- Hong Kong Tennis Open: Juncheng Shang vs Alexander BublikBublik won
- Set 1 Winner: Shang vs BublikBublik won
- Shang vs. Bublik: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.