Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Ostapenko (-1.5) vs Yastremska (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb379b8e161e4068cfe7448b44aff7eb3ec8c8cba4cc393fbd54de5ee16ef3c6f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ostapenkoof Ostapenko, Yastremska
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,361
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,361 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Ostapenko | 37c | 1,500$561 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$938.52 | 3,871 | 35%1,353 W · 2,518 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b5e…83f8backed Yastremska | 63c | 1,049$659 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$658.86 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9175…bd29backed Yastremska | 63c | 999.98$627 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$627.49 | 84 | 46.4%39 W · 45 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d63…8b8cbacked Ostapenko | 36c | 795.85$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$509.85 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +4.1wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Yastremska | 64c | 714.38$457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$457.32 | 1,809 | 43.8%793 W · 1,016 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yastremska | 43c | 633.14$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.5 | 372 | 30.4%113 W · 259 L | -12.0wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x622b…5a4abacked Ostapenko | 37c | 550$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.5 | 350 | 40.9%143 W · 207 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Ostapenko | 79c | 329.87$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.37 | 2,523 | 39.6%1,000 W · 1,523 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a12…d3febacked Yastremska | 62c | 250$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 92 | 47.8%44 W · 48 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Ostapenko | 37c | 137.51$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.63 | 2,418 | 51.7%1,249 W · 1,169 L | +10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b71…80ecbacked Ostapenko | 35c | 128.57$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.57 | 211 | 49.8%105 W · 106 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xddf5…aaa3backed Ostapenko | 35c | 128.57$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.57 | 692 | 53.3%369 W · 323 L | -10.4wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yastremska | 21c | 128$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.56 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa77a…e6f9backed Ostapenko | 78c | 82.54$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.16 | 214 | 48.1%103 W · 111 L | -13.9wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yastremska | 26c | 77.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.43 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yastremska | 22c | 59.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 37 | 13.5%5 W · 32 L | -3.8wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc798…a8e9backed Ostapenko | 36c | 56.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.41 | 535 | 44.1%236 W · 299 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dcc…45f6backed Ostapenko | 77c | 48.59$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 73 | 45.2%33 W · 40 L | -10.4wins | -0.14per pick | 59cpaid | -29%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7c47…1189backed Ostapenko | 35c | 45.71$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.71 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +4.0wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2f31…e2b6backed Ostapenko | 78c | 41.67$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.17 | 355 | 59.4%211 W · 144 L | -10.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Ostapenko | 37c | 37.04$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.34 | 1,245 | 33.9%422 W · 823 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4cf…9332backed Yastremska | 35c | 32.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91e0…26a0backed Ostapenko | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 257 | 37%95 W · 162 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Ostapenko (-1.5) vs Yastremska (+1.5)this page
- Miami Open: Jelena Ostapenko vs Dayana YastremskaJelena Ostapenko won
- Set 1 Winner: Ostapenko vs YastremskaOstapenko won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.