Tennis · resolved market
ITF Tokyo: Taisei Ichikawa vs Makoto Ochi
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb3abdde79fefc0470eca71c0c8db5ef7a46e6d951be2d04ec475d534d0b96cf5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Makoto Ochiof Taisei Ichikawa, Makoto Ochi
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,640
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,566
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,640 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe804…33cfbacked Taisei Ichikawa | 28c | 400$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…5bdfbacked Makoto Ochi | 75c | 335.71$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.29 | 969 | 45.9%445 W · 524 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc07d…b1dfbacked Makoto Ochi | 67c | 215.03$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.34 | 2,383 | 55.6%1,326 W · 1,057 L | +49.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Taisei Ichikawa | 30c | 98.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.57 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Makoto Ochi | 65c | 86.62$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.32 | 4,241 | 52.6%2,232 W · 2,009 L | +65.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce0…9d0bbacked Taisei Ichikawa | 48c | 62.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 241 | 59.3%143 W · 98 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91ac…5ff3backed Taisei Ichikawa | 29c | 51.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 601 | 41.1%247 W · 354 L | -11.4wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c9…6686backed Taisei Ichikawa | 55c | 51.13$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.12 | 1,337 | 46%615 W · 722 L | +23.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b36ebacked Taisei Ichikawa | 25c | 50.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 509 | 46.6%237 W · 272 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed Taisei Ichikawa | 48c | 26.34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 1,276 | 61%778 W · 498 L | +27.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31e7…fe2abacked Taisei Ichikawa | 47c | 25.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 1,356 | 38.3%520 W · 836 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Taisei Ichikawa | 43c | 25.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65ec…a2f9backed Makoto Ochi | 58c | 20.59$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.59 | 450 | 53.3%240 W · 210 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2025…13c0backed Makoto Ochi | 64c | 17.59$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.33 | 55 | 70.9%39 W · 16 L | +6.6wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x747f…f2d7backed Taisei Ichikawa | 71c | 17.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 901 | 52.3%471 W · 430 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.