Tennis · resolved market
Set 1 Winner: Popyrin vs Ruud
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb3d3f17e2e6aa798123cecd121dbe873c9bce1463d3edd6b5aa9760a231fa423
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ruudof Popyrin, Ruud
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,301
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,825
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,301 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Popyrin | 27c | 1,252$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.37 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Ruud | 65c | 531.74$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.82 | 1,258 | 50%629 W · 629 L | -4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d0…a1c5backed Popyrin | 39c | 296.99$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.6 | 1,566 | 40%627 W · 939 L | -32.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb5a…0ce5backed Ruud | 68c | 272.56$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.21 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4371…4fd9backed Popyrin | 41c | 258.85$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.12 | 97 | 49.5%48 W · 49 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed Ruud | 76c | 206.84$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.64 | 637 | 46%293 W · 344 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2e9…ce05backed Ruud | 67c | 154.58$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.69 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.26per pick | 61cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4be6…b010backed Popyrin | 47c | 121.54$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.12 | 1,428 | 48.2%689 W · 739 L | +4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7767…4fb2backed Ruud | 67c | 101.91$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.92 | 83 | 50.6%42 W · 41 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Popyrin | 33c | 76.52$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.53 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34f9…12ebbacked Popyrin | 29c | 74.97$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.03 | 184 | 30.4%56 W · 128 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed Ruud | 67c | 43.89$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 864 | 70%605 W · 259 L | +43.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x10cf…1cfbbacked Popyrin | 34c | 35.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 193 | 44.6%86 W · 107 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Popyrin | 33c | 31.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x584d…d358backed Ruud | 74c | 29.95$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 341 | 59.5%203 W · 138 L | -8.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Ruud | 66c | 26.74$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.09 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set 1 Winner: Popyrin vs Ruudthis page
- Alexei Popyrin vs. Casper Ruud: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Popyrin vs. Ruud: Match O/U 21.5Under won
- Popyrin vs. Ruud: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Under won
- Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Alexei Popyrin vs Casper RuudCasper Ruud won
- Set Handicap: Ruud (-1.5) vs Popyrin (+1.5)Ruud won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.