Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Ruud (-1.5) vs Popyrin (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x48db0ec6f2943d91edda96534cf73d1e4d49d220db7347b5879d964d9ca4dae6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ruudof Ruud, Popyrin
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,709
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,454
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,709 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x620b…fca3backed Ruud | 55c | 2,702$1,481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,221.22 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.36per pick | 48cpaid | +82.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Popyrin | 46c | 1,446$669 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$668.52 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Popyrin | 45c | 1,280$576 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$576 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfeab…9cd0backed Ruud | 53c | 548.12$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.54 | 504 | 42.7%215 W · 289 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Popyrin | 46c | 535.48$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.73 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a73…a9c8backed Ruud | 51c | 472.81$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.11 | 625 | 34.4%215 W · 410 L | -20.1wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Popyrin | 54c | 213.58$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.25 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…07c2backed Popyrin | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 81 | 46.9%38 W · 43 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Popyrin | 46c | 196.99$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.2 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe80f…b81bbacked Popyrin | 53c | 190.71$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.07 | 180 | 59.4%107 W · 73 L | -9.2wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9069…9c14backed Ruud | 50c | 145.5$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.75 | 184 | 54.3%100 W · 84 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Ruud | 41c | 124.43$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.42 | 261 | 31.4%82 W · 179 L | -10.8wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -24%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Popyrin | 44c | 89.07$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.19 | 3,871 | 35%1,353 W · 2,518 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e1…f17fbacked Ruud | 51c | 87.01$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.35 | 244 | 63.5%155 W · 89 L | +9.9wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a73…c2e5backed Ruud | 51c | 56.71$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.59 | 300 | 53.3%160 W · 140 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Popyrin | 51c | 56.31$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.95 | 1,414 | 41.1%581 W · 833 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ace…b219backed Ruud | 57c | 51.27$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.05 | 124 | 63.7%79 W · 45 L | +9.4wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Popyrin | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00f7…4476backed Popyrin | 47c | 49.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 124 | 47.6%59 W · 65 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd7…6d6cbacked Popyrin | 54c | 48.63$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.46 | 130 | 51.5%67 W · 63 L | -7.6wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Popyrin | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 354 | 39.8%141 W · 213 L | -15.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3373…50c4backed Popyrin | 51c | 33.71$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.19 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Ruud | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 450 | 51.8%233 W · 217 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb5…f531backed Ruud | 51c | 28.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.01 | 77 | 53.2%41 W · 36 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd6f…bad3backed Popyrin | 53c | 27.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64c3…75abbacked Ruud | 53c | 27.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.93 | 115 | 45.2%52 W · 63 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93dc…3728backed Ruud | 50c | 21.34$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.67 | 425 | 45.6%194 W · 231 L | -11.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Ruud (-1.5) vs Popyrin (+1.5)this page
- Alexei Popyrin vs. Casper Ruud: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Popyrin vs. Ruud: Match O/U 21.5Under won
- Popyrin vs. Ruud: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Under won
- Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Alexei Popyrin vs Casper RuudCasper Ruud won
- Set 1 Winner: Popyrin vs RuudRuud won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.