Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Lehecka (-1.5) vs Tiafoe (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb3ef8d590b70beb95d847d8ea7226c3f205e90ac7709877718a51c4579e19a79
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Leheckaof Lehecka, Tiafoe
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,394
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,469
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,394 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa4f9…9419backed Lehecka | 57c | 2,384$1,351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,032.8 | 308 | 27.6%85 W · 223 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd2…f868backed Tiafoe | 69c | 966.23$665 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$665.15 | 61 | 65.6%40 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Lehecka | 31c | 940.8$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$649.15 | 2,174 | 36.9%802 W · 1,372 L | +39.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Lehecka | 34c | 346$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.36 | 1,532 | 40.7%624 W · 908 L | -48.7wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x272d…bc2fbacked Tiafoe | 44c | 326.25$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.55 | 366 | 57.7%211 W · 155 L | +7.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Tiafoe | 66c | 321$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.56 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Tiafoe | 46c | 287.04$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.61 | 1,149 | 41.3%474 W · 675 L | +23.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3135…f6c3backed Tiafoe | 42c | 283.3$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.99 | 265 | 55.8%148 W · 117 L | +12.2wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Tiafoe | 42c | 238.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3,424 | 39.1%1,338 W · 2,086 L | -12.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Tiafoe | 42c | 169.44$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 2,601 | 46.5%1,209 W · 1,392 L | +18.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Tiafoe | 35c | 162$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.87 | 1,379 | 16.4%226 W · 1,153 L | -108.5wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Tiafoe | 42c | 147.62$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 3,220 | 40.5%1,305 W · 1,915 L | +28.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed Tiafoe | 42c | 133.33$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 2,151 | 37.3%802 W · 1,349 L | -27.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8649…ba57backed Tiafoe | 43c | 116.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 796 | 46%366 W · 430 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Tiafoe | 41c | 108.11$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.11 | 1,228 | 23.1%284 W · 944 L | -164.0wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -47%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb421…8856backed Tiafoe | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1,776 | 48.6%863 W · 913 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7462…3ac3backed Tiafoe | 43c | 96.24$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.38 | 1,681 | 50%841 W · 840 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…d542backed Tiafoe | 51c | 96$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.96 | 1,837 | 59.2%1,088 W · 749 L | +8.4wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b10…2b21backed Lehecka | 35c | 95.03$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.82 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | +3.7wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe368…e9edbacked Tiafoe | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 374 | 36.4%136 W · 238 L | -16.2wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4efe…d987backed Tiafoe | 69c | 50.8$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…3813backed Tiafoe | 65c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 1,168 | 49.1%573 W · 595 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1351…178bbacked Tiafoe | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 167 | 46.7%78 W · 89 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c2e…b55cbacked Tiafoe | 24c | 45.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 92 | 45.7%42 W · 50 L | +9.8wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2f…9123backed Lehecka | 65c | 43.1$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.08 | 316 | 56.3%178 W · 138 L | +19.8wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee5a…9f70backed Lehecka | 29c | 42.25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 356 | 41.3%147 W · 209 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c97…5c66backed Tiafoe | 71c | 42.25$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 483 | 55.1%266 W · 217 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Tiafoe | 65c | 40.03$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.02 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Tiafoe | 66c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 1,588 | 47%746 W · 842 L | -24.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ad…34cebacked Tiafoe | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 440 | 51.6%227 W · 213 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked Tiafoe | 44c | 26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 335 | 50.1%168 W · 167 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Lehecka (-1.5) vs Tiafoe (+1.5)this page
- Jiri Lehecka vs. Frances Tiafoe: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Lehecka vs. Tiafoe: Match O/U 22.5Over won
- Lehecka vs. Tiafoe: Match O/U 23.5Under won
- Set 1 Winner: Lehecka vs TiafoeLehecka won
- Stuttgart Open: Jiri Lehecka vs Frances TiafoeJiri Lehecka won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.