Fifa International · resolved market
Will Russia win on 2025-10-14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb405d114d6b9b360e4ca8241265ec205ded70c98bb728eded8bf7809edc6c926
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,804
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,049
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,804 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes | 78c | 7,982$6,226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,756.13 | 270 | 39.6%107 W · 163 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed No | 22c | 3,516$772 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$771.79 | 220 | 41.4%91 W · 129 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed No | 22c | 2,500$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 292 | 32.9%96 W · 196 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed No | 22c | 2,050$451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$451 | 605 | 11.4%69 W · 536 L | -16.5wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -38%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 7c | 244$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.76 | 779 | 9.6%75 W · 704 L | -11.8wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked No | 21c | 149.66$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.81 | 396 | 21%83 W · 313 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf63…65dfbacked Yes | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x562f…e46fbacked Yes | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -5.0wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked No | 19c | 95.65$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.46 | 203 | 22.7%46 W · 157 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26ae…97b8backed No | 21c | 70.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 112 | 59.8%67 W · 45 L | +7.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16ce…b3dcbacked Yes | 73c | 68.49$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 96 | 67.7%65 W · 31 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…0fedbacked No | 27c | 68.49$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.49 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 22c | 62.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 4,027 | 38.9%1,568 W · 2,459 L | -26.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x498b…ca86backed Yes | 79c | 50.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ed…6c8bbacked Yes | 71c | 44$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.76 | 87 | 48.3%42 W · 45 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7150…6a8abacked Yes | 79c | 31.65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9235…3fbdbacked Yes | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1700…54d9backed Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1435…0028backed Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia win on 2025-10-14?this page
- Will Bolivia win on 2025-10-14?No won
- Will Russia vs. Bolivia end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.