CS2 · resolved market
IEM Cologne: Spirit vs. HEROIC
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb43151046b614ac0e50e90f95c3f3867b1dbfbfdf3c1992a7000e2bde9b5d328
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Spiritof Spirit, HEROIC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,861
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,106
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,861 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed HEROIC | 0c | 9,267$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.17 | 1,500 | 9.9%148 W · 1,352 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…5e75backed HEROIC | 15c | 1,549$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.38 | 218 | 46.8%102 W · 116 L | -9.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f78…68a4backed HEROIC | 8c | 1,338$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.83 | 85 | 4.7%4 W · 81 L | -8.5wins | -0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -84.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f7…58dbbacked HEROIC | 9c | 1,010$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.9 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb09…0f04backed HEROIC | 18c | 747.22$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133 | 132 | 23.5%31 W · 101 L | -10.5wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf80b…fa00backed HEROIC | 16c | 499.99$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97ae…82bdbacked HEROIC | 16c | 345$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.2 | 160 | 33.8%54 W · 106 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed HEROIC | 14c | 342.73$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.74 | 103 | 48.5%50 W · 53 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5a…7618backed HEROIC | 16c | 299$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.54 | 121 | 31.4%38 W · 83 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65eb…e197backed HEROIC | 12c | 204.15$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.64 | 62 | 45.2%28 W · 34 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7703…34b9backed HEROIC | 11c | 197.65$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2885…486cbacked HEROIC | 15c | 139.77$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.36 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.15per pick | 32cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5327…3b80backed HEROIC | 15c | 132.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -23%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x639e…a9d4backed HEROIC | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked HEROIC | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 176 | 33%58 W · 118 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +14%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d7…b646backed HEROIC | 16c | 99.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40d5…bfe9backed HEROIC | 15c | 90$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 633 | 45.2%286 W · 347 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed HEROIC | 15c | 76.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 148 | 46.6%69 W · 79 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc5f…8989backed Spirit | 80c | 43$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.24per pick | 60cpaid | -45%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.