Bundesliga · resolved market
Will FC Schalke 04 vs. SG Dynamo Dresden end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb4840ec6f726a5605fccad6f1c18c3e18b3856554c34a202334f43523b1dd9a7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $58,619
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $78,128
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $58,619 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x80cf…427dbacked Yes | 22c | 15,000$3,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,699.63 | 104 | 45.2%47 W · 57 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 78c | 14,853$11,541 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,541.34 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 18c | 3,105$567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$567.15 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe06c…62aebacked Yes | 79c | 1,969$1,550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$418.4 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 26c | 1,917$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504.48 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 73c | 406.56$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.79 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a2…9874backed Yes | 27c | 400$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292 | 63 | 44.4%28 W · 35 L | +9.8wins | +0.16per pick | 29cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc8e5…9401backed Yes | 27c | 370.37$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.37 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.37per pick | 38cpaid | +99.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x08ba…2a30backed No | 75c | 266.67$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 128 | 61.7%79 W · 49 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Yes | 51c | 193.58$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.43 | 386 | 46.9%181 W · 205 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 27c | 85$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.05 | 79 | 35.4%28 W · 51 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 73c | 83.89$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.24 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ad…0614backed No | 75c | 50.24$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.68 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1557…04afbacked Yes | 80c | 50.19$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 49c | 49.6$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.46 | 398 | 57.5%229 W · 169 L | +20.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc12…05f2backed Yes | 27c | 37.04$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.04 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d8…19c5backed No | 74c | 33.78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 64 | 62.5%40 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd2…084dbacked Yes | 80c | 25.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.03 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd68e…8048backed Yes | 79c | 13.22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.78 | 29 | 75.9%22 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 70cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Schalke 04 vs. SG Dynamo Dresden end in a draw?this page
- Will FC Schalke 04 win on 2026-02-07?No won
- Will SG Dynamo Dresden win on 2026-02-07?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.