Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 24°C on May 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb4a5d4a22572f7fc2d8b95946efaed2615bae888a6f0b38c5a79f7b761b8634f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,934
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,958
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,934 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6868…5198backed No | 32c | 209.75$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.09 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 76c | 168.39$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.16 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x2451…09fabacked Yes | 20c | 119.98$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.26 | 221 | 25.3%56 W · 165 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed No | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 33c | 80.34$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.56 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 38c | 79.98$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.65 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf90…62b9backed Yes | 56c | 59$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.18 | 31 | 77.4%24 W · 7 L | +5.7wins | +0.18per pick | 59cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 49.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.49 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 66c | 43.22$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.64 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x182a…f847backed Yes | 59c | 35.03$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.36 | 187 | 62.6%117 W · 70 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 79c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x547b…d0babacked Yes | 44c | 28.63$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.93 | 106 | 53.8%57 W · 49 L | +12.0wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xddd8…4eeebacked Yes | 73c | 27.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.51 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 55cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 72c | 27.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe681…19f8backed Yes | 60c | 26.34$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.58 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 57c | 25.63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 55c | 23.12$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.48 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 58c | 22.6$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 59c | 17.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.99 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed Yes | 61c | 17.03$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.62 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0832…8681backed Yes | 65c | 16.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.95 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2467…2650backed No | 79c | 15.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 88 | 77.3%68 W · 20 L | +5.7wins | +0.07per pick | 71cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x18eb…c5fbbacked Yes | 65c | 15.51$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.36 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +4.8wins | +0.30per pick | 51cpaid | +83.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 80c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 24°C on May 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 20°C on May 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 21°C on May 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 22°C on May 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 23°C on May 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C on May 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.