MLB · resolved market
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Mets
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb4b41e863456b4b007ab924b73f8b0766c0c7bdc805eaa2cc799ffad62178b42
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- New York Metsof Toronto Blue Jays, New York Mets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,175
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,175 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9c4d…168cbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 45c | 1,500$676 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$676.35 | 832 | 48%399 W · 433 L | +20.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Toronto Blue Jays | 44c | 1,356$595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$594.8 | 1,352 | 50.8%687 W · 665 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed New York Mets | 58c | 1,085$627 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$458.17 | 408 | 46.1%188 W · 220 L | -10.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe278…b608backed New York Mets | 56c | 998.12$559 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$439.17 | 92 | 44.6%41 W · 51 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked New York Mets | 56c | 595.35$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.21 | 465 | 47.1%219 W · 246 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacae…6798backed Toronto Blue Jays | 42c | 455$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.1 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -3.7wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf988…d63bbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 42c | 321.4$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.99 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked Toronto Blue Jays | 45c | 300$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 3,291 | 46.2%1,521 W · 1,770 L | +20.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 46c | 300$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 97 | 25.8%25 W · 72 L | -11.2wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xce6d…28b5backed New York Mets | 54c | 300$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138 | 1,483 | 50.2%745 W · 738 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x236b…26b7backed Toronto Blue Jays | 44c | 268$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.01 | 134 | 42.5%57 W · 77 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 43c | 262.24$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.64 | 981 | 49.8%489 W · 492 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed New York Mets | 65c | 200.11$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.17 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…5fcfbacked New York Mets | 58c | 200$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 352 | 45.5%160 W · 192 L | -13.6wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked New York Mets | 68c | 148.48$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.01 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x829e…2c6dbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked New York Mets | 58c | 118$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.56 | 722 | 47.6%344 W · 378 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Toronto Blue Jays | 42c | 99.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 2,261 | 45.4%1,026 W · 1,235 L | +57.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca81…f2abbacked New York Mets | 56c | 99.98$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.49 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed New York Mets | 63c | 84$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.93 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x94a5…4eb8backed Toronto Blue Jays | 43c | 75.97$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.67 | 126 | 51.6%65 W · 61 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Toronto Blue Jays | 18c | 72.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 841 | 22.7%191 W · 650 L | -81.4wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Toronto Blue Jays | 45c | 66.52$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.93 | 393 | 44.3%174 W · 219 L | -22.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa446…d9c6backed Toronto Blue Jays | 39c | 63.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.89 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Toronto Blue Jays | 30c | 59$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.77 | 392 | 9.4%37 W · 355 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…0f9abacked Toronto Blue Jays | 39c | 57.44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 507 | 51.7%262 W · 245 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Toronto Blue Jays | 43c | 54$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.22 | 256 | 48%123 W · 133 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed New York Mets | 58c | 52$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.84 | 247 | 48.6%120 W · 127 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbaa…dd4fbacked New York Mets | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba6…2a7ebacked New York Mets | 56c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.8 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +60.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fc0…8f18backed Toronto Blue Jays | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 63 | 42.9%27 W · 36 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa923…6704backed Toronto Blue Jays | 42c | 24.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 95 | 43.2%41 W · 54 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked New York Mets | 58c | 23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed New York Mets | 59c | 22.1$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.06 | 352 | 40.3%142 W · 210 L | -23.5wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x74f9…ad71backed New York Mets | 58c | 20.21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.49 | 71 | 49.3%35 W · 36 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22be…e36ebacked New York Mets | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…c396backed New York Mets | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef1…5acabacked New York Mets | 59c | 19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.79 | 236 | 47%111 W · 125 L | -11.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x19b4…e42ebacked New York Mets | 55c | 18.64$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.39 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.