Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 2°C on February 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb4d3df9702555c515395f52eda011794c1b3b535afb89345e2d8dfcfca1be6a9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,951
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,870
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,951 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 17c | 1,037$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.95 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xd0c8…dd57backed Yes | 70c | 637.99$445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.53 | 78 | 35.9%28 W · 50 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 15c | 206.11$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.71 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 19c | 193.48$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.56 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6396…aff3backed No | 30c | 184.19$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.86 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -3.8wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 36c | 175.07$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.52 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5771…6ef3backed No | 32c | 107.62$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.34 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 33c | 106.66$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.71 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 30c | 90.4$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.11 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 53c | 72.6$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.36 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 27c | 65.37$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.72 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39a2…00e3backed Yes | 35c | 57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.05 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 29cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 31c | 54.42$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6d54…ee01backed No | 67c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.4 | 80 | 72.5%58 W · 22 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 23c | 48.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 59c | 45.27$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.73 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95a1…7cc7backed Yes | 48c | 41.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.48 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fc6…1a3ebacked Yes | 53c | 37.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.66 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b22…8945backed No | 68c | 36.76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 253 | 41.5%105 W · 148 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd83…d74fbacked Yes | 41c | 36.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.59 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -3.1wins | -0.24per pick | 40cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x09fc…8a7ebacked No | 38c | 36.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffb1…b639backed No | 35c | 33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc0…b5f2backed No | 33c | 30.91$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 133 | 60.9%81 W · 52 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc92b…d66ebacked No | 38c | 27.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 27cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x174c…4351backed Yes | 43c | 27.9$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 60 | 28.3%17 W · 43 L | -3.9wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b66…3907backed Yes | 54c | 25.82$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x333d…aba8backed Yes | 78c | 24.44$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +58.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a76…5584backed Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6d4…d382backed Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 67cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…50ebbacked Yes | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 315 | 67%211 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…9811backed Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -4.0wins | -0.19per pick | 76cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 62c | 19.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e2d…3f6ebacked Yes | 76c | 19.7$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 64c | 15.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 2°C on February 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -2°C on February 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 0°C on February 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 1°C on February 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 3°C on February 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 4°C or higher on February 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.