Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Inner Circle vs Aurora (BO3) - ESL One Birmingham: Eastern Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb5833824242d275fed69d8148789d29b522dbcc1658d536480b6f3e8e87ea2e2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Auroraof Inner Circle, Aurora
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,328
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,204
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,328 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x19a0…ac39backed Inner Circle | 10c | 962.79$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.09 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +5.3wins | +0.18per pick | 47cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xccf5…42f2backed Inner Circle | 31c | 600$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186 | 574 | 55.4%318 W · 256 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcfe…44b5backed Inner Circle | 10c | 324.03$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.74 | 328 | 54.9%180 W · 148 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe42b…7ea9backed Inner Circle | 30c | 300$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 465 | 35.1%163 W · 302 L | +22.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Inner Circle | 14c | 299.98$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 656 | 25.6%168 W · 488 L | +14.7wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Inner Circle | 9c | 191.56$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 869 | 49%426 W · 443 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2806…6de8backed Inner Circle | 32c | 155.56$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 113 | 44.2%50 W · 63 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40ba…7ea5backed Inner Circle | 28c | 150$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 537 | 57.7%310 W · 227 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83a0…12cabacked Aurora | 69c | 129.48$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.14 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e2e…b5a5backed Inner Circle | 13c | 98.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x92b5…2defbacked Aurora | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 958 | 41.1%394 W · 564 L | +32.7wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x736a…c3f8backed Inner Circle | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Inner Circle vs Aurora (BO3) - ESL One Birmingham: Eastern Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffsthis page
- Dota 2: Inner Circle vs Aurora - Game 1 WinnerAurora won
- Dota 2: Inner Circle vs Aurora - Game 2 WinnerAurora won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.