Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Inner Circle vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xecf864513aea35c9ad2e7d17afdf572369591c0aa36ef5abe7c60bd28d480879
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Auroraof Inner Circle, Aurora
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,072
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,670
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,072 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4572…83ffbacked Inner Circle | 53c | 9,468$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 534 | 51.7%276 W · 258 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…f071backed Aurora | 68c | 5,223$3,567 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,656.11 | 344 | 68.9%237 W · 107 L | +26.3wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x19a0…ac39backed Aurora | 47c | 3,741$1,748 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,992.34 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +5.3wins | +0.18per pick | 47cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Aurora | 46c | 1,899$875 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,023.48 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Inner Circle | 10c | 1,100$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 656 | 25.6%168 W · 488 L | +14.7wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef26…05babacked Inner Circle | 49c | 1,055$515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$515.35 | 254 | 46.1%117 W · 137 L | +11.9wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bea…5d50backed Aurora | 64c | 652$419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.65 | 477 | 48.6%232 W · 245 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2d0…6078backed Inner Circle | 49c | 605$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.8 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82bf…de71backed Aurora | 61c | 597$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.83 | 547 | 53.6%293 W · 254 L | +22.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8df0…96a6backed Inner Circle | 45c | 591.06$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.98 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4f…46c2backed Inner Circle | 34c | 505$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.9 | 360 | 54.4%196 W · 164 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cad…eb66backed Inner Circle | 28c | 444$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.32 | 97 | 50.5%49 W · 48 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x762d…45a6backed Aurora | 53c | 327.5$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.23 | 99 | 55.6%55 W · 44 L | +8.8wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1f…aa39backed Aurora | 55c | 274.46$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.26 | 450 | 61.6%277 W · 173 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40ce…bf90backed Inner Circle | 36c | 200$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 185 | 50.8%94 W · 91 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcaf…8229backed Aurora | 53c | 149.86$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.86 | 337 | 43.6%147 W · 190 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcfe…44b5backed Aurora | 48c | 112.69$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.99 | 328 | 54.9%180 W · 148 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x687c…8c91backed Aurora | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 142 | 54.2%77 W · 65 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83a0…12cabacked Aurora | 56c | 79.5$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.98 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92b5…2defbacked Aurora | 57c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 958 | 41.1%394 W · 564 L | +32.7wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5305…57e8backed Inner Circle | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb75e…1737backed Aurora | 60c | 35.27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.11 | 109 | 45%49 W · 60 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdca0…a27cbacked Aurora | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +3.1wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc49b…70c0backed Aurora | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 630 | 32.5%205 W · 425 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Inner Circle vs Aurora - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Inner Circle vs Aurora (BO3) - ESL One Birmingham: Eastern Europe Closed Qualifier PlayoffsAurora won
- Dota 2: Inner Circle vs Aurora - Game 1 WinnerAurora won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.