South American Leagues · resolved market
Spread: CF América (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb5b0b4fea05c86411dbd3fbb067134a1d7902ba5be6498ddbf104bb2770f63c5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- FC Juárezof CF América, FC Juárez
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,367
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,367 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed FC Juárez | 68c | 1,317$893 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$423.95 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed CF América | 35c | 856.87$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.9 | 57 | 24.6%14 W · 43 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed CF América | 37c | 516$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.92 | 65 | 43.1%28 W · 37 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked FC Juárez | 64c | 370.57$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.07 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…0decbacked CF América | 30c | 216$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.66 | 175 | 42.3%74 W · 101 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed CF América | 36c | 210.47$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4300…5c69backed CF América | 36c | 200$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 124 | 43.5%54 W · 70 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5124…91bbbacked CF América | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked FC Juárez | 66c | 184.21$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.79 | 270 | 53%143 W · 127 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked CF América | 36c | 125$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 337 | 45.4%153 W · 184 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67fc…722bbacked CF América | 37c | 96.84$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.83 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -27%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0742…86a0backed CF América | 25c | 92.61$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.82 | 62 | 21%13 W · 49 L | -4.7wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -21%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f14…c845backed FC Juárez | 65c | 76.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed CF América | 16c | 76.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 992 | 59.1%586 W · 406 L | +108.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa488…91c3backed FC Juárez | 68c | 65$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.9 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x576c…f218backed FC Juárez | 64c | 60$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.9 | 170 | 66.5%113 W · 57 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed CF América | 31c | 43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3323…f667backed CF América | 36c | 41.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.15per pick | 38cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x035b…3ca0backed FC Juárez | 73c | 41$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.03 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -28%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88a7…6ab2backed FC Juárez | 64c | 34.88$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.56 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed FC Juárez | 64c | 33.31$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.99 | 398 | 53%211 W · 187 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7299…31f3backed CF América | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51b5…20fcbacked FC Juárez | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9af0…a4d3backed FC Juárez | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 56cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b35…768ebacked FC Juárez | 67c | 22.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.42 | 86 | 55.8%48 W · 38 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3108…8a52backed FC Juárez | 70c | 21.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15ea…c56dbacked FC Juárez | 67c | 20.94$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.94 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +3.4wins | +0.30per pick | 51cpaid | +74.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…e61cbacked FC Juárez | 64c | 16.69$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.01 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: CF América (-1.5)this page
- CF América vs. FC Juárez: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- CF América vs. FC Juárez: O/U 1.5Over won
- CF América vs. FC Juárez: O/U 2.5Over won
- CF América vs. FC Juárez: O/U 3.5Under won
- CF América vs. FC Juárez: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: CF América (-2.5)FC Juárez won
- Spread: FC Juárez (-1.5)CF América won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.