CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Alliance (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb600d2c059d116667327493ad4e91bfd56df6b2ace01e86b1462d01a61a8e5b6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Allianceof fnatic, Alliance
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,871
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,012
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,871 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa927…8d9fbacked Alliance | 60c | 1,029$622 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.01 | 345 | 59.1%204 W · 141 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb7e…9546backed fnatic | 35c | 583$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.93 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed fnatic | 23c | 486.81$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.01 | 6,480 | 42.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L | -79.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked fnatic | 33c | 360.3$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.15 | 5,511 | 47%2,590 W · 2,921 L | +42.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe296…046ebacked fnatic | 43c | 245.88$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.73 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa091…f1c1backed Alliance | 67c | 242.97$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.18 | 97 | 37.1%36 W · 61 L | -5.4wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed fnatic | 19c | 240$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.4 | 573 | 22.3%128 W · 445 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d65…6a04backed fnatic | 36c | 236.94$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.3 | 85 | 42.4%36 W · 49 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…dc5abacked fnatic | 39c | 218$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed1c…36fabacked Alliance | 80c | 181.42$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.45 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked fnatic | 29c | 162.89$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.11 | 4,933 | 37.4%1,844 W · 3,089 L | -249.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6df5…6430backed fnatic | 19c | 162$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.78 | 1,278 | 21.9%280 W · 998 L | -24.3wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x969f…cbdcbacked fnatic | 11c | 157.92$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 627 | 38.8%243 W · 384 L | -31.2wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -30%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6b…e911backed fnatic | 26c | 125.61$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.15 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb209…b744backed Alliance | 63c | 115.42$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.62 | 293 | 40.6%119 W · 174 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7004…a778backed Alliance | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 301 | 55.8%168 W · 133 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94d2…cfbdbacked Alliance | 62c | 92.29$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.76 | 2,110 | 47.2%995 W · 1,115 L | -62.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked fnatic | 32c | 91.11$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.91 | 7,925 | 50.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L | +179.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff09…80b5backed fnatic | 23c | 88.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 185 | 30.3%56 W · 129 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1769…94efbacked Alliance | 56c | 87.5$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 916 | 48.9%448 W · 468 L | +4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Alliance | 79c | 75$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 4,064 | 50.9%2,067 W · 1,997 L | +69.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa073…a3babacked Alliance | 77c | 74.88$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.09 | 1,117 | 68.6%766 W · 351 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked fnatic | 24c | 62.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 4,691 | 43.6%2,043 W · 2,648 L | -83.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8da3…7c12backed Alliance | 74c | 58.08$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.29 | 523 | 69.4%363 W · 160 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00d4…4c46backed Alliance | 65c | 46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 452 | 40.3%182 W · 270 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b28…ff4fbacked Alliance | 74c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 1,352 | 52%703 W · 649 L | +29.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed fnatic | 45c | 39.69$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 739 | 48.4%358 W · 381 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Alliance (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffsthis page
- Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Alliance - Map 2 Winnerfnatic won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.