CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Alliance - Map 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa9cb1b60e81c588070860b3d362da1a4453e637321913671842ea95b663b7c9e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- fnaticof fnatic, Alliance
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,476
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,971
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,476 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa927…8d9fbacked Alliance | 48c | 2,218$1,074 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,074.04 | 345 | 59.1%204 W · 141 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Alliance | 29c | 1,692$494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494.15 | 4,933 | 37.4%1,844 W · 3,089 L | -249.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked fnatic | 53c | 1,274$679 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$594.82 | 7,925 | 50.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L | +179.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked fnatic | 52c | 905.02$474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430.98 | 5,511 | 47%2,590 W · 2,921 L | +42.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x949e…20afbacked Alliance | 40c | 375$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 432 | 37.7%163 W · 269 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e19…d2b0backed fnatic | 29c | 279.42$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.32 | 527 | 50.7%267 W · 260 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed fnatic | 49c | 183.88$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.57 | 2,326 | 45.1%1,049 W · 1,277 L | -62.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked fnatic | 50c | 181.57$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.98 | 4,691 | 43.6%2,043 W · 2,648 L | -83.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde1d…dfaabacked fnatic | 29c | 172.41$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.41 | 74 | 59.5%44 W · 30 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x969f…cbdcbacked Alliance | 58c | 142.41$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.82 | 627 | 38.8%243 W · 384 L | -31.2wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -30%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Alliance | 48c | 132.74$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.83 | 2,468 | 24.6%607 W · 1,861 L | -317.8wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe296…046ebacked Alliance | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1052…441bbacked Alliance | 62c | 104.84$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 95 | 67.4%64 W · 31 L | +5.1wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked fnatic | 50c | 95.85$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.15 | 1,710 | 52.3%895 W · 815 L | -73.4wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1aee…8796backed Alliance | 55c | 89.45$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.2 | 282 | 54.6%154 W · 128 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b2…e2c0backed Alliance | 63c | 78.25$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x930b…0223backed Alliance | 56c | 71.23$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 238 | 61.3%146 W · 92 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5501…fe9abacked fnatic | 42c | 67.28$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.8 | 187 | 36.9%69 W · 118 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x316f…795abacked Alliance | 41c | 67$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.47 | 66 | 34.8%23 W · 43 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -21%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a72…0a38backed Alliance | 41c | 67$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.47 | 414 | 36.7%152 W · 262 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90bb…531fbacked Alliance | 41c | 67$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.47 | 100 | 29%29 W · 71 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba8e…8e0dbacked Alliance | 70c | 53.71$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.61 | 503 | 58.6%295 W · 208 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe297…e484backed Alliance | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 322 | 58.7%189 W · 133 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77de…e67abacked Alliance | 41c | 48.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 526 | 45.1%237 W · 289 L | -20.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2bf3…4f00backed fnatic | 67c | 48.29$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.11 | 408 | 57.1%233 W · 175 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb91c…ed66backed Alliance | 31c | 41.31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 700 | 42.3%296 W · 404 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed fnatic | 45c | 34.5$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.87 | 965 | 43.5%420 W · 545 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6a0…2212backed fnatic | 48c | 33.33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.33 | 345 | 47.5%164 W · 181 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c6c…5e36backed fnatic | 62c | 31.37$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.92 | 239 | 56.5%135 W · 104 L | +15.6wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6efa…a0a7backed Alliance | 50c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 302 | 47%142 W · 160 L | -11.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ee…663bbacked Alliance | 51c | 24.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 150 | 44.7%67 W · 83 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x018a…4800backed Alliance | 80c | 18.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Alliance - Map 2 Winnerthis page
- Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Alliance (BO3) - ROG Journey PlayoffsAlliance won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.