Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
San Jose State Spartans vs. Fresno State Bulldogs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb6847d15e2e50b8b47b24409fd1144be03286407bc3b70a066e832a6d53af8a5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Fresno State Bulldogsof San Jose State Spartans, Fresno State Bulldogs
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,745
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,993
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,745 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf1f0…c9e4backed Fresno State Bulldogs | 75c | 1,233$919 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.04 | 229 | 54.1%124 W · 105 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb8…abbebacked San Jose State Spartans | 25c | 1,200$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.04 | 1,983 | 26.4%523 W · 1,460 L | -55.5wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Fresno State Bulldogs | 74c | 686.34$509 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.07 | 3,380 | 49.5%1,673 W · 1,707 L | +30.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecfa…3c6fbacked San Jose State Spartans | 25c | 356.4$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.1 | 555 | 32.8%182 W · 373 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Fresno State Bulldogs | 74c | 311.89$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.09 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked San Jose State Spartans | 26c | 299.09$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.76 | 2,194 | 33.4%733 W · 1,461 L | +19.2wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed San Jose State Spartans | 26c | 291.79$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.87 | 621 | 40.4%251 W · 370 L | -10.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed San Jose State Spartans | 27c | 243.31$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.69 | 815 | 28.8%235 W · 580 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked San Jose State Spartans | 25c | 199.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,317 | 33.6%443 W · 874 L | +14.9wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked San Jose State Spartans | 14c | 147.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.26 | 771 | 42.3%326 W · 445 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed San Jose State Spartans | 27c | 146.64$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.32 | 922 | 46%424 W · 498 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Fresno State Bulldogs | 74c | 132$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.88 | 3,905 | 58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L | +165.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x236b…26b7backed San Jose State Spartans | 27c | 118.19$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.37 | 258 | 37.6%97 W · 161 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Fresno State Bulldogs | 74c | 115.42$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.01 | 1,231 | 47%578 W · 653 L | -17.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Fresno State Bulldogs | 75c | 115.35$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.91 | 1,511 | 47.8%722 W · 789 L | -35.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…0544backed San Jose State Spartans | 26c | 82.02$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.33 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed San Jose State Spartans | 26c | 75.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 3,684 | 42.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L | +32.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Fresno State Bulldogs | 74c | 65.94$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.45 | 1,446 | 43.4%627 W · 819 L | +10.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf43c…d7c3backed Fresno State Bulldogs | 74c | 43.85$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 491 | 57.2%281 W · 210 L | +18.9wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Fresno State Bulldogs | 75c | 34.43$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.61 | 1,493 | 48.7%727 W · 766 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- San Jose State Spartans vs. Fresno State Bulldogsthis page
- San Jose State Spartans vs. Fresno State Bulldogs: O/U 148.5Over won
- San Jose State Spartans vs. Fresno State Bulldogs: O/U 149.5Over won
- Spread: Fresno State Bulldogs (-6.5)Fresno State Bulldogs won
- Spread: Fresno State Bulldogs (-7.5)Fresno State Bulldogs won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.