MLB · resolved market
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Philadelphia Phillies
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb6df4ccbd8efbde7619e0fada74281620f780aea901cad7618c4ed1eea9f7341
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Philadelphia Philliesof Toronto Blue Jays, Philadelphia Phillies
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,661
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,361
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,661 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Toronto Blue Jays | 0c | 4,992$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.7 | 392 | 9.4%37 W · 355 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Philadelphia Phillies | 56c | 1,661$930 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$731.99 | 1,352 | 50.8%687 W · 665 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49ed…a2fbbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 57c | 1,163$663 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.09 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +3.3wins | +0.20per pick | 51cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…1d79backed Philadelphia Phillies | 61c | 1,125$688 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$437.23 | 262 | 45.8%120 W · 142 L | -17.7wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4b49…64dabacked Toronto Blue Jays | 23c | 1,115$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.7 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe278…b608backed Toronto Blue Jays | 44c | 1,000$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440 | 92 | 44.6%41 W · 51 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Toronto Blue Jays | 42c | 755.45$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.85 | 408 | 46.1%188 W · 220 L | -10.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 6c | 741.03$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.61 | 143 | 28.7%41 W · 102 L | -11.9wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Philadelphia Phillies | 59c | 523$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.13 | 205 | 48.3%99 W · 106 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4d…168cbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 41c | 499.99$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.99 | 832 | 48%399 W · 433 L | +20.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 54c | 460.6$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.88 | 981 | 49.8%489 W · 492 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Toronto Blue Jays | 40c | 435.66$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.41 | 465 | 47.1%219 W · 246 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7140…47e3backed Philadelphia Phillies | 57c | 367.71$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.01 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…0f9abacked Philadelphia Phillies | 59c | 321.79$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.79 | 507 | 51.7%262 W · 245 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04ec…8ac9backed Toronto Blue Jays | 44c | 317.99$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.59 | 688 | 46.8%322 W · 366 L | +9.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Toronto Blue Jays | 36c | 316.23$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.25 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked Toronto Blue Jays | 46c | 300$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 3,291 | 46.2%1,521 W · 1,770 L | +20.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Philadelphia Phillies | 71c | 296.12$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.33 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 42c | 243$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.89 | 149 | 53%79 W · 70 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b66…336abacked Philadelphia Phillies | 59c | 235.59$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.59 | 116 | 52.6%61 W · 55 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc71a…f135backed Philadelphia Phillies | 59c | 204.97$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.04 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Toronto Blue Jays | 43c | 186.7$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 665 | 51.1%340 W · 325 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed Philadelphia Phillies | 66c | 127$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.9 | 86 | 44.2%38 W · 48 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Toronto Blue Jays | 17c | 122.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.42 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 57c | 116$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.88 | 722 | 47.6%344 W · 378 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Philadelphia Phillies | 59c | 106.78$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.78 | 770 | 50.5%389 W · 381 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1243…2a64backed Toronto Blue Jays | 45c | 105.84$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.03 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 38c | 101.83$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.69 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 59c | 101.69$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.69 | 509 | 49.5%252 W · 257 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…5fcfbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 352 | 45.5%160 W · 192 L | -13.6wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe70c…c938backed Toronto Blue Jays | 49c | 98.05$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 59 | 28.8%17 W · 42 L | -6.9wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Toronto Blue Jays | 43c | 61.76$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 1,466 | 44.1%647 W · 819 L | +44.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94a5…4eb8backed Toronto Blue Jays | 42c | 60$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 126 | 51.6%65 W · 61 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Toronto Blue Jays | 42c | 59.9$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.16 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf60…79c5backed Toronto Blue Jays | 40c | 53.75$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.64 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda4f…77e9backed Toronto Blue Jays | 44c | 50.31$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.33 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Toronto Blue Jays | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 2,261 | 45.4%1,026 W · 1,235 L | +57.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7253…9190backed Toronto Blue Jays | 41c | 49.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5271…0f95backed Toronto Blue Jays | 44c | 41$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.04 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +13%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf026…8df7backed Philadelphia Phillies | 62c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.2 | 77 | 50.6%39 W · 38 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Philadelphia Phillies | 49c | 31.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.91 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64e8…7819backed Toronto Blue Jays | 36c | 31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 170 | 50%85 W · 85 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd173…bd41backed Toronto Blue Jays | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Philadelphia Phillies | 53c | 23.39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.99 | 352 | 40.3%142 W · 210 L | -23.5wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb691…b39dbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 68c | 16.41$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.22 | 142 | 51.4%73 W · 69 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24ca…5829backed Philadelphia Phillies | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.16 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.