Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C or higher on August 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb74ee75d98aafb097e03511b52421c4905c5c5abcfe6e210a376c99e837447eb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,003
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,185
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,003 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x18ec…f311backed No | 24c | 499.99$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.94 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c95…52dbbacked No | 22c | 407$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.84 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 78c | 374.98$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.86 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 21c | 301.67$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.92 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x710b…a42dbacked No | 29c | 241.71$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 203 | 27.1%55 W · 148 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…e12fbacked No | 18c | 200.21$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.8 | 132 | 54.5%72 W · 60 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 18c | 153.34$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.37 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 70c | 133.38$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.61 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef32…265cbacked No | 20c | 132$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.56 | 88 | 45.5%40 W · 48 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked Yes | 75c | 118.51$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.63 | 317 | 48.6%154 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3614…2397backed Yes | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 14c | 86.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x040a…118dbacked No | 13c | 85.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc31f…f04abacked Yes | 63c | 71.53$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.71 | 62 | 79%49 W · 13 L | +9.6wins | +0.15per pick | 64cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 18c | 70.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 29c | 69.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5695…60e9backed Yes | 74c | 66.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.07 | 192 | 52.1%100 W · 92 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 55c | 62$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.85 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 78c | 57.79$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 21c | 54.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 63c | 51.31$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.05 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e3…5296backed No | 25c | 48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 203 | 39.9%81 W · 122 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed No | 25c | 40.42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf685…5ec9backed No | 50c | 40.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +3.6wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3066…1e7bbacked Yes | 63c | 35.71$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 92 | 70.7%65 W · 27 L | +10.7wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed No | 32c | 35.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 587 | 32.9%193 W · 394 L | +34.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 56c | 32.44$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.37 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 73c | 28.31$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.53 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes | 72c | 27.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.59 | 308 | 34.4%106 W · 202 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 76c | 27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x83dd…1517backed No | 54c | 22.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 79 | 57%45 W · 34 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 60c | 20.39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.23 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc4…f3dabacked Yes | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde0a…004ebacked Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 283 | 68.6%194 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes | 78c | 19.29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.24 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecd9…5565backed Yes | 76c | 18.65$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 133 | 50.4%67 W · 66 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 78c | 17.95$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.95 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 78c | 17.03$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…9157backed Yes | 78c | 16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.49 | 245 | 31%76 W · 169 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf651…86b1backed Yes | 74c | 14.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 61 | 57.4%35 W · 26 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C or higher on August 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on August 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on August 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.