Europa Conference League · resolved market
Ferencvárosi TC vs. PFK Ludogorets 1945 Razgrad: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb7784178ede4a55e9ce7bd633429509be46d05bc58b7ac0b1a6ac494d16c9381
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,018
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,134
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,018 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2129…4222backed Under | 46c | 1,814$834 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$834.22 | 245 | 57.6%141 W · 104 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8245…4f87backed Over | 54c | 1,800$972 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$828.05 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -3.9wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb6…15cdbacked Over | 55c | 967.09$532 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$435.19 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 48c | 732$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.04 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bf4…952ebacked Over | 55c | 553.7$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.17 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 45c | 444$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.8 | 93 | 45.2%42 W · 51 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 45c | 382.84$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.28 | 92 | 27.2%25 W · 67 L | -11.8wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -43%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 45c | 256.7$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.52 | 103 | 32%33 W · 70 L | -5.8wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa39a…1246backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -3.2wins | -0.20per pick | 57cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5b0e…5b17backed Over | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x553b…f71cbacked Under | 45c | 149.99$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 47c | 123.81$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.19 | 338 | 47%159 W · 179 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…960dbacked Over | 53c | 118.81$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.84 | 63 | 23.8%15 W · 48 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc6…0f52backed Over | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ffe…a5e4backed Over | 55c | 18.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Ferencvárosi TC vs. PFK Ludogorets 1945 Razgrad: O/U 2.5this page
- Ferencvárosi TC vs. PFK Ludogorets 1945 Razgrad: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Spread: Ferencvárosi TC (-1.5)Ferencvárosi TC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.