NHL · resolved market
AHL: Springfield Thunderbirds vs. Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb7a103b28816e8521a5d0e94807c8aeb779ef2e09f31a7932d988b2c82eb929d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Springfield Thunderbirdsof Springfield Thunderbirds, Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,136
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,983
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,136 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x767a…8ac5backed Springfield Thunderbirds | 49c | 565.82$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.57 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Springfield Thunderbirds | 40c | 414.01$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.41 | 865 | 49.1%425 W · 440 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fea…78b1backed Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins | 80c | 407.92$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.55 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbe8…1141backed Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins | 60c | 271.83$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.1 | 87 | 49.4%43 W · 44 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f17…b55dbacked Springfield Thunderbirds | 62c | 200$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.11 | 16 | 87.5%14 W · 2 L | +5.7wins | +0.36per pick | 52cpaid | +81.5%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…f729backed Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins | 60c | 122.66$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.81 | 88 | 44.3%39 W · 49 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins | 51c | 117.54$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.52 | 323 | 53.9%174 W · 149 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Springfield Thunderbirds | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 924 | 44.5%411 W · 513 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins | 51c | 92.32$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.08 | 1,028 | 53.2%547 W · 481 L | +21.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins | 39c | 70.75$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.32 | 253 | 45.5%115 W · 138 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins | 60c | 64.68$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.81 | 212 | 53.3%113 W · 99 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Springfield Thunderbirds | 40c | 61.67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 502 | 51.2%257 W · 245 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e8e…6461backed Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins | 60c | 50.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.36 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 68 | 47.1%32 W · 36 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…ab49backed Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe062…4907backed Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins | 60c | 48.48$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.09 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20a8…d960backed Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins | 78c | 33$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.68 | 366 | 62%227 W · 139 L | +39.1wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xebff…70e5backed Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins | 41c | 30.02$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 227 | 28.2%64 W · 163 L | -17.6wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Springfield Thunderbirds | 42c | 26.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.56 | 97 | 59.8%58 W · 39 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.