Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Arizona vs. Kansas State
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb82a0500c2935fe78e678d7efc5de82c26c2badd918afb86b8a503831b6f5812
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Kansas Stateof Arizona, Kansas State
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,569
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,499
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,569 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 8 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x40e3…0787backed Arizona | 21c | 473.33$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.94 | 284 | 45.1%128 W · 156 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1af…d23bbacked Arizona | 63c | 400$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5834…f0cbbacked Arizona | 62c | 262.5$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.5 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | -7.3wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Kansas State | 38c | 195.47$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.24 | 530 | 57.4%304 W · 226 L | +33.1wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe27b…858fbacked Kansas State | 39c | 111.9$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.26 | 283 | 35%99 W · 184 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4e3…a992backed Arizona | 61c | 100$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39f9…32fabacked Kansas State | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +92.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeea7…c4d0backed Arizona | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.