Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 22°C or higher on May 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb83297d7c1dc57c82c50a979a799862200a1097f09398b2d36f81ed2d1850014
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,210
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,951
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,210 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 43c | 298.15$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 68c | 280.99$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.26 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 9c | 273.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.61 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 47c | 241.21$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.79 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c9f…8e7dbacked Yes | 22c | 178.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.93 | 216 | 31%67 W · 149 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 70c | 170.74$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.68 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 19c | 119.91$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.27 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9030…4a23backed Yes | 43c | 99.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.35 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3d…ddd3backed Yes | 15c | 99.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed Yes | 56c | 97.72$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.72 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked No | 64c | 95$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.17 | 347 | 48.7%169 W · 178 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x847c…9ff8backed No | 52c | 73.75$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.75 | 225 | 50.2%113 W · 112 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 48c | 64$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.86 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8798…45efbacked Yes | 35c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.05 | 77 | 36.4%28 W · 49 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 30c | 57.27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…704cbacked Yes | 35c | 56.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.67 | 321 | 32.7%105 W · 216 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c1…1bebbacked No | 66c | 56.21$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.13 | 276 | 48.6%134 W · 142 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked No | 72c | 52.09$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.59 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b82…b217backed Yes | 29c | 51.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 141 | 34.8%49 W · 92 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x322a…096fbacked No | 70c | 50.06$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.84 | 66 | 22.7%15 W · 51 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf82e…ad17backed No | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.1 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 38c | 49.27$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.73 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b9e…0948backed No | 65c | 44.45$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.38 | 108 | 45.4%49 W · 59 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5637…adf9backed No | 72c | 44$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.14 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe314…3c94backed No | 49c | 41.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.07 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf52e…1663backed Yes | 56c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.43 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked Yes | 47c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.86 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 31c | 39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 64c | 38.66$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.93 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x443f…a5d4backed No | 77c | 38.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 52c | 38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.34 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 52c | 37.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.57 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfef…5837backed No | 80c | 37.03$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.44 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -4.0wins | -0.45per pick | 67cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82eb…efe0backed No | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 30 | 80%24 W · 6 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 71cpaid | +15%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 71c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 66c | 27.47$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.43 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 63c | 27.37$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.23 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…43a8backed No | 61c | 25.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.01 | 245 | 39.6%97 W · 148 L | +10.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 67c | 23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.69 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 67c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.19 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7447…1480backed Yes | 51c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 105 | 18.1%19 W · 86 L | -8.8wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 64c | 20.77$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb696…02d9backed No | 54c | 20.02$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.11 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.56 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 22°C or higher on May 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 18°C on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 19°C on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 20°C on May 1?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 21°C on May 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.