Movies · resolved market
Will Josy and Gunnar marry by the end of Love is Blind: Germany: Season 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb878cc80d878ec721153064aebd92641c5061a768060b6c9610be35bf3e791c6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,165
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,269
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,165 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 131 | 30.5%40 W · 91 L | -7.2wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7100…e693backed No | 29c | 148.43$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75d4…4027backed Yes | 71c | 89.66$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 46 | 65.2%30 W · 16 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee76…8fedbacked Yes | 73c | 87.77$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 33 | 78.8%26 W · 7 L | +6.9wins | +0.21per pick | 58cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…b443backed Yes | 74c | 87$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.58 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -55%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f90…1d49backed No | 26c | 78.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65b8…da5ebacked No | 25c | 78$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ce5…bfb7backed Yes | 77c | 69$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fef…cdbebacked Yes | 75c | 55$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7a2…b146backed No | 22c | 49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa214…2d44backed No | 27c | 46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52b2…bb3bbacked No | 25c | 42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3236…da77backed Yes | 72c | 38$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7adf…e01ebacked No | 28c | 38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f5…001bbacked Yes | 76c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb706…b12bbacked Yes | 72c | 32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 75c | 28.58$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.14 | 49 | 20.4%10 W · 39 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…6f7fbacked Yes | 73c | 27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bc4…f740backed Yes | 72c | 26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24a3…75b3backed Yes | 73c | 26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x986c…3569backed Yes | 73c | 24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd09…63c7backed Yes | 73c | 23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.21 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +63.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf97…fa0abacked Yes | 74c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe801…e929backed Yes | 79c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47c0…43d5backed Yes | 74c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.42 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.