Stocks · resolved market
Will Meta (META) close above $610 on March 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb88e676add14ea18d35232c63c878778941178124ea5b90f0c934801fba0e64f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,900
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,900 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x247f…6749backed No | 76c | 946.58$718 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.7 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +49.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1755…5aacbacked Yes | 26c | 837.85$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.39 | 1,326 | 46.9%622 W · 704 L | +41.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e72…bd6fbacked No | 58c | 317$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74f1…369dbacked No | 57c | 305$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b59…dcccbacked No | 57c | 300$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96e5…4844backed No | 58c | 294$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x035c…f375backed No | 57c | 292$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6bc…9e7ebacked No | 57c | 284$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b69…2f72backed No | 58c | 282$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c8f…2a02backed Yes | 43c | 275$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ac…ffe2backed No | 57c | 271$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3dc…2a22backed Yes | 43c | 257$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bed…b829backed No | 58c | 254$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4054…2e57backed Yes | 43c | 247$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa0…a7c5backed No | 58c | 239$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fba…f0adbacked No | 58c | 229$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2a…24afbacked Yes | 43c | 228$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a21…6df3backed Yes | 43c | 219$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe86d…2a21backed Yes | 43c | 215$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81fb…8b92backed Yes | 43c | 209$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.87 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a66…a3acbacked Yes | 42c | 206$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48f4…0c4cbacked No | 57c | 191$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1339…3c5dbacked No | 57c | 185$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e67…df10backed Yes | 42c | 182$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…71d4backed No | 58c | 181$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x761c…afc5backed Yes | 43c | 176$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe12d…efaabacked Yes | 43c | 169$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2663…bb3ebacked Yes | 42c | 167$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c60…410fbacked Yes | 42c | 163$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ba…bb62backed Yes | 43c | 160$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6da9…1b25backed Yes | 42c | 156$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cd4…3135backed Yes | 43c | 153$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8891…71f8backed Yes | 42c | 151$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccfc…1b27backed Yes | 42c | 147$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fae…c21cbacked Yes | 42c | 129$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52e1…07c4backed Yes | 42c | 119$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…3213backed No | 57c | 114$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x982a…6851backed Yes | 24c | 101.39$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 848 | 46%390 W · 458 L | +51.5wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b14…46c5backed No | 75c | 26.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.52 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 59cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f0d…f4d9backed No | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Meta (META) close above $610 on March 19?this page
- Will Meta (META) close above $600 on March 19?Yes won
- Will Meta (META) close above $620 on March 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.