College Football · resolved market
Florida vs. Florida State
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb8ae93c6ab48cbc0489a70d3f6fe5437eafd09a755c814ef896e3dd40ed12427
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Floridaof Florida, Florida State
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,731
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,964
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,731 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe4cf…78c4backed Florida State | 7c | 3,000$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1608…a990backed Florida State | 12c | 3,000$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc21d…4ed8backed Florida State | 7c | 2,600$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…590dbacked Florida State | 9c | 1,650$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142 | 49 | 28.6%14 W · 35 L | -5.7wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xecbe…42ffbacked Florida State | 1c | 1,500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 242 | 29.3%71 W · 171 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Florida State | 5c | 751.04$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.54 | 128 | 16.4%21 W · 107 L | -8.4wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed Florida State | 7c | 478.95$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.53 | 203 | 41.9%85 W · 118 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…1de4backed Florida State | 5c | 320$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 52 | 9.6%5 W · 47 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cd…3cf2backed Florida State | 12c | 238.44$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.04 | 55 | 30.9%17 W · 38 L | -5.1wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd057…ae9fbacked Florida State | 6c | 224.66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 80 | 23.8%19 W · 61 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x371a…34b0backed Florida State | 6c | 221.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 237 | 0.8%2 W · 235 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -98.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe34…cf4cbacked Florida State | 11c | 141.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.62 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5706…44acbacked Florida State | 15c | 106.93$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.04 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 23cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x904b…429cbacked Florida State | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc94b…fd9bbacked Florida State | 22c | 66.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +4.0wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +84%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xff44…3eaabacked Florida State | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -29%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8163…e061backed Florida | 72c | 37.86$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.