Premier League · resolved market
Will Millwall FC win on 2025-10-18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb8b94e7d9f054c89f6f0ed10722043320866dc6fe1c5c6893bb13d21200f35ab
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,830
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,224
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,830 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9f13…e0fdbacked No | 68c | 19,393$13,187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,186.98 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Yes | 32c | 11,484$3,675 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,808.86 | 796 | 50.8%404 W · 392 L | +28.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Yes | 32c | 6,006$1,922 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,084.08 | 189 | 58.7%111 W · 78 L | +12.6wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 41c | 5,803$2,375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,428.48 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked No | 67c | 5,555$3,722 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,721.69 | 308 | 51.3%158 W · 150 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 64c | 3,451$2,208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,208.42 | 357 | 58%207 W · 150 L | +12.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcce5…bdafbacked Yes | 36c | 3,445$1,240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,204.86 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…0dd9backed Yes | 32c | 800$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$544 | 239 | 20.9%50 W · 189 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 36c | 737$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$468.4 | 4,768 | 41.8%1,993 W · 2,775 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90e0…ff4cbacked No | 8c | 501.16$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.16 | 130 | 5.4%7 W · 123 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xade8…b0bdbacked Yes | 54c | 498.53$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.96 | 111 | 55.9%62 W · 49 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed No | 55c | 364.26$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 346 | 43.9%152 W · 194 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbc…f458backed Yes | 35c | 272$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.81 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03f7…c0ccbacked Yes | 31c | 210.02$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.76 | 143 | 42.7%61 W · 82 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8adf…b6b1backed No | 69c | 58$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.02 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 64cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcba6…bb05backed No | 69c | 27.6$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 175 | 49.1%86 W · 89 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed No | 68c | 21.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 356 | 61.2%218 W · 138 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Millwall FC win on 2025-10-18?this page
- Will Queens Park Rangers FC vs. Millwall FC end in a draw?No won
- Will Queens Park Rangers FC win on 2025-10-18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.